Central Bank leaves rates unchanged in June

Central Bank stands pat: At its meeting on 19 June, the Central Bank of Costa Rica (BCCR) decided to maintain the policy interest rate at 4.00%, where it has stood since October 2024.

Global turmoil calls for caution: The Bank decided to stand pat due to heightened trade and geopolitical uncertainty, as the recent escalation of conflict in the Middle East caused a brief spike in oil prices. Nonetheless, the BCCR noted that consumer prices fell year on year in May, and highlighted that it now expects inflation to return to the 2.0–4.0% target range in Q3 2026, rather than in Q2 2026 as was projected at the April meeting.

BCCR to cut rates this year: The Central Bank provided no explicit forward guidance on future interest rate movements. Our Consensus is for a 25 basis point cut by end-2025. However, some panelists expect a 50 basis points reduction, while others see the Bank holding rates throughout the remainder of the year. A stronger-than-expected colón is a downside risk, while additional oil price spikes and smaller-than-anticipated cuts by the U.S. Fed are upside risks.

How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Costa Rican interest rate projections for the next ten years from a panel of 13 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable interest rate forecast available for Costa Rican interest rate.

Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Costa Rican interest rate projections.

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