Middle East & North Africa Economic Forecast

Economic Snapshot for MENA

June 8, 2022

MENA GDP forecast to slow in 2022

In 2022, regional price growth should slow from 2021, although this is mainly on reductions in the extremely elevated inflation rates of Iran, Lebanon and Yemen. Most countries will actually experience higher inflation this year due to stronger GDP growth and higher food and fuel prices. Extreme weather and potential food shortages due to war in Ukraine are upside risks.

Inflation to ease this year

Many regional central banks manage currency pegs and lack independent monetary policies. As such, most banks with pegs hiked rates in May in line with the Fed’s hike. Among those with independent policies, the central banks of both Egypt and Israel also hiked rates in May to tame inflation. Interest rates are set to rise further later this year.

 
 

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