Middle East & North Africa Economic Forecast

Economic Snapshot for MENA

October 5, 2022

Economic Growth

GDP growth is set to accelerate in 2022, as oil exporters benefit from higher average oil quotas and prices. Meanwhile, oil importers will generally lose steam due to higher inflation. In 2023, regional growth should ease on cooling hydrocarbon prices and softer oil output growth. Risks include extreme weather, changes to OPEC+ quotas, and sociopolitical instability.

Inflation Outlook

Regional inflation is seen remaining elevated this year, before easing next year. Inflation in 2022 has been stoked by higher food and fuel prices, but the recent cooling of these, together with tighter monetary policy, should lead price pressures to weaken in 2023. Risks include extreme weather, OPEC+ quota changes, and renewed disruption to Ukrainian grain supplies.

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