Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook
The ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, and OPEC+ output hikes in October made our panelists more optimistic about MENA’s GDP growth in 2026; the region’s economy is set to expand at the quickest pace since 2011 excluding the post-Covid rebound. Lower inflation and interest rates will be a further fillip to economic activity. Still, a flare-up in regional conflicts is a downside risk.
Middle East & North Africa Inflation
Inflation in the region is seen easing further in 2026. That said, price growth will continue to differ sharply between countries: USD-pegged economies are projected to see mild price rises, while Egypt, Iran, Lebanon and Yemen are forecast to retain higher inflation rates due to a combination of weak currencies, supply shortages and economic dysfunction.
This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for Middle East & North Africa from 2011 to 2022.
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 774 | 890 | 783 | 779 | 1,233 |
| Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 840 | 1,173 | 1,215 | 1,026 | 1,446 |
| Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) | 67 | 283 | 532 | 247 | 213 |
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 7,167 | 8,581 | 10,100 | 9,492 | 9,751 |
| International Reserves (USD bn) | 1,034 | 1,116 | 1,148 | 1,219 | 1,274 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | 2.02 | 1.92 | 5.77 | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 4.3 | 7.3 | 9.5 | 10.7 | 7.4 |
| Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | -1.4 | 4.4 | 9.5 | 4.5 | 2.9 |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 55.9 | 51.9 | 43.6 | 43.8 | 45.5 |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 46.5 | 44.7 | 39.6 | 43.1 | 43.6 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -9.6 | -2.9 | 2.4 | -1.5 | -2.5 |
| Private Consumption (annual variation in %) | -3.5 | 5.6 | 7.1 | 5.4 | 4.1 |
| Investment (annual variation in %) | -7.9 | 4.7 | 18.4 | 2.9 | 1.4 |
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | -4.6 | 5.3 | 11.2 | -0.3 | -0.1 |
| Money (ann. var. of M2 %) | 10.8 | 10.3 | 11.6 | 8.4 | 11.5 |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 7.6 | 7.0 | 6.3 | 5.8 | 5.5 |
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | -3.5 | 5.0 | 7.5 | 2.2 | 2.0 |