Middle East & North Africa Economic Forecast

Economic Snapshot for MENA

December 1, 2022

Economic Growth

GDP growth in 2023 will ease to around the 10-year pre-pandemic average. Rate hikes, stagnating oil production and flagging external demand will all weigh on momentum. Key factors to watch include changes to OPEC+ quotas, U.S. Fed hikes, extreme weather, Iran nuclear talks, geopolitical tensions and the Russia-Ukraine grain deal—which was recently extended to mid-March 2023.

Inflation Outlook

Inflation should decline next year on tighter monetary policy and currency stabilization. That said, it will remain significantly higher than before the pandemic as energy and food prices are set to remain elevated, despite cooling somewhat. Risks include extreme weather, the Russia-Ukraine grain deal and unexpected currency devaluations.

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