Spain Economic Outlook
September 27, 2016Spain continues to be beset by political uncertainty. Although the country managed in early August to avoid EU fines for repeatedly missing its budget target, failure to submit a 2017 budget draft to the EU authorities before 15 October could trigger a fresh round of sanctions, especially if Brussels deems the efforts to reduce the fiscal deficit to be insufficient. Spain has been unable to present the draft so far since the caretaker minority government does not have enough support to pass measures to address the deficit. In a bid to keep this year’s deficit in check, the interim government is however hoping to achieve a majority in Congress to introduce changes to corporate tax laws, which would raise EUR 6 billion by year-end. Despite Spain’s political and fiscal challenges, economic growth remained unscathed in the first half of the year, with GDP expanding a seasonally-adjusted 0.8% in Q2 over the previous quarter. High frequency data for the third quarter point to a more mixed picture: while the PMI rose in August, industrial production fell markedly in July.
Spain Economy Data
5 years of Spain economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Bond Yield||1.08||0.75 %||Oct 19|
|Exchange Rate||1.09||-0.38 %||Oct 20|
|Stock Market||9,061||1.24 %||Oct 20|
Spain Economic Growth
September 27, 2016Spain’s economic activity will benefit from an improving labor market and favorable financing conditions this year. Our panelists expect the economy to grow 3.0% in 2016, which is up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month’s estimate. Although growth so far has proven resilient to political shocks, the gradual fading away of the country’s tailwinds and the aftermath of the Brexit vote will weigh on the country’s outlook, especially regarding tourism and exports. For 2017, the panel sees growth easing to 2.1%.
Spain Economic News
October 7, 2016
In August, industrial production expanded 4.0% from the same month last year in working-day adjusted terms.
October 5, 2016
The Markit Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) Composite Output Index came in at 54.1 in September, which was slightly below August’s 54.8 reading.
September 30, 2016
Spain’s current account balance incurred a surplus of EUR 3.0 billion in July, which was above the EUR 2.7 billion surplus recorded in the same month of last year and marked the highest reading since December 2014.
September 29, 2016
In August, retail sales rose 4.9% over the same month last year as the discount season drew to an end.
September 29, 2016
In July, the Spanish Board of Architects (Colegio de Arquitectos Técnicos) granted 6,267 new construction permits, according to data published by the Ministry of Public Works (Ministerio de Fomento).