Spain Economic Outlook
May 31, 2022Growth weakened in the first quarter, as household spending was weighed down by surging inflation and the spread of the Omicron variant. Turning to Q2, in April, a robust recovery in tourism likely underpinned the tertiary sector, as signaled by a higher services PMI reading, while the rate of unemployment fell and retail sales rebounded strongly. However, elevated inflation, downbeat consumer confidence and a softer expansion in manufacturing activity call for caution. Meanwhile, the European Commission recently warned of imbalances in the public accounts, with the independent fiscal authority lamenting the absence of a medium-term strategy to bring them under control. Furthermore, the Bank of Spain has called for additional reforms to ensure the sustainability of the public pensions system.
Spain Economic GrowthAlthough the pace of growth will ease this year, it should remain relatively solid. A recovering tourism industry and EU fund inflows should underpin the economy. While accumulated savings and rising employment will provide support to consumer spending, it will be restrained by elevated inflation. Rising interest rates and a weak fiscal position cloud the outlook. Our panelists now project the economy to grow 4.4% in 2022, down 0.3 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 3.1% in 2023.
Spain Economy Data
5 years of Spain economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Bond Yield||0.46||5.62 %||Dec 31|
|Exchange Rate||1.12||0.65 %||Dec 31|
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Spain Economic News
November 16, 2022
Harmonized inflation dropped to 7.3% in October, following September’s 9.0%.
November 9, 2022
Industrial output expanded 3.6% year-on-year in seasonally and calendar-adjusted terms in September, which was a deterioration from August's 5.2% increase.
November 7, 2022
The S&P Global Composite Purchasing Managers’ (PMI) fell to 48.0 in October from September’s 48.4.
November 2, 2022
According to a preliminary estimate, GDP rose 0.2% on a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis in Q3, decelerating notably from the 1.5% increase recorded in Q2.
November 2, 2022
Retail sales increased 0.5% in year-on-year terms in September, which followed August's 0.8% increase.