Spain Economic Forecast

Spain Economic Outlook

May 2, 2017

Building on an already strong performance throughout 2016, the Spanish economy expanded at a robust rate of 0.8% in Q1. Households likely remained the linchpin of economic growth as a resilient labor market and a pickup in real estate prices contributed to private spending. This spells good news for a domestic economy that has seen the recent increase in inflation and stagnant wage growth denting disposable income. The country’s exporting sectors, which are benefiting from improved global demand and robust operating conditions, also buttressed growth. Meanwhile, headlines remain focused on the political wrangling surrounding the approval of the 2017 budget. The proposed budget heavily curtails public investment in infrastructure in a bid to bring the deficit down to the EU target of 3.1% of GDP for 2017. However, the draft, which also envisages an ambitious increase in tax collection and a hike in social security contributions, has been met with skepticism by Central Bank officials, who see revenue expectations as too optimistic.

Spain Economy Data

20112012201320142015
Population (million)46.746.846.646.546.4
GDP per capita (EUR)22,90322,23322,01322,32323,170
GDP (EUR bn)1,0701,0401,0261,0371,076
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)-1.0-2.9-1.71.43.2
Domestic Demand (annual variation in %)-3.1-5.1-3.21.93.4
Consumption (annual variation in %)-2.4-3.6-3.21.62.8
Investment (annual variation in %)-6.9-8.6-3.43.86.0
Exports (G&S, annual variation in %)7.41.14.34.24.9
Imports (G&S, annual variation in %)-0.8-6.4-0.56.55.6
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)-1.4-6.6-1.51.23.2
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)-5.8-7.0-3.90.93.6
Unemployment Rate21.424.826.124.422.1
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-9.6-10.5-7.0-6.0-5.1
Public Debt (% of GDP)69.585.795.410099.8
Inflation Rate (HICP, annual variation in %, eop)2.43.00.3-1.1-0.1
Inflation Rate (HICP, annual variation in %)3.12.41.5-0.2-0.6
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)6.93.80.6-1.3-2.1
Policy Interest Rate (%)1.000.750.250.050.05
Stock Market (annual variation in %)-13.1-4.721.43.7-7.2
Exchange Rate (vs USD)1.301.321.381.211.09
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1.391.291.331.331.11
Current Account (% of GDP)-3.3-0.21.51.11.4
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)-34.0-2.415.611.314.7
Trade Balance (EUR billion)-46.0-31.0-16.0-24.0-24.0

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Spain Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield1.601.46 %May 09
Exchange Rate1.09-0.20 %May 10
Stock Market11,035-0.13 %May 10

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Spain Economic Growth

May 2, 2017

Although the economy will experience a mild slowdown this year, panelists now expect growth of 2.7%—up 0.2 points from last month’s forecast—as recent data showcase the resilience of the Spanish economy. Indeed, higher investment on the heels of upbeat business sentiment and improved dynamics in the external sector will partially make up for a slowdown in household consumption. For 2018, the panel sees growth easing further to 2.2%.

Spain Economic News

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