Spain Economic Forecast

Spain Economic Outlook

August 29, 2017

The economy roared through the first half of the year, expanding at a faster-than-expected clip as both the domestic and external sector added to growth. Private consumption accelerated markedly in the second quarter as households continued to benefit from strong job creation and credit growth. So far this year, the brilliant performance of the labor market has kept household spending at healthy levels despite higher inflation and depressed wage growth. This trend seems to have carried over into the third quarter, with employment growth in the manufacturing sector growing at the fastest rate in nearly two decades in July, and growth in Social Security Affiliations for July decelerating only slightly from the previous month. Although too early to tell, the all-important tourism sector seems to have escaped largely unscathed from the terrorist attack that hit Barcelona in mid-August, as suggested by hotel occupancy rates in the touristic city.

Spain Economy Data

20122013201420152016
Population (million)46.846.646.546.446.3
GDP per capita (EUR)22,23322,01322,32323,17724,045
GDP (EUR bn)1,0401,0261,0371,0761,114
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)-2.9-1.71.43.23.2
Domestic Demand (annual variation in %)-5.1-3.21.93.42.9
Consumption (annual variation in %)-3.6-3.21.62.83.2
Investment (annual variation in %)-8.6-3.43.86.03.1
Exports (G&S, annual variation in %)1.14.34.24.94.4
Imports (G&S, annual variation in %)-6.4-0.56.55.63.3
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)-6.6-1.51.23.22.0
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)-7.0-3.90.93.63.7
Unemployment Rate24.826.124.422.119.6
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-10.5-7.0-6.0-5.1-4.5
Public Debt (% of GDP)85.795.510099.899.4
Inflation Rate (HICP, annual variation in %, eop)3.00.3-1.1-0.11.4
Inflation Rate (HICP, annual variation in %)2.41.5-0.2-0.6-0.3
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)3.80.6-1.3-  -  
Policy Interest Rate (%)0.750.250.05-  -  
Stock Market (annual variation in %)-4.721.43.7-7.2-2.0
Exchange Rate (vs USD)1.321.381.21-  -  
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1.291.331.33-  -  
Current Account (% of GDP)-0.21.51.11.41.9
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)-2.415.611.314.721.5
Trade Balance (EUR billion)-31.0-16.0-24.0-24.2-18.8

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Spain Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield1.591.40 %Sep 15
Exchange Rate1.20-0.08 %Sep 18
Stock Market10,3380.20 %Sep 18

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Spain Economic Growth

August 29, 2017

Economic growth is expected to come in at a similar pace to last year’s, the result of a much stronger than expected H1 performance. Growth will continue to be broad-based, with the domestic sector benefiting from higher disposable income and buoyant sentiment, and the external sector supported by an upturn in global trade. The rate of expansion, however, will moderate as some of the tailwinds dissipate in upcoming months. Our panel kept their projection for this year steady at 3.0% this month. Panelists see growth of 2.5% in 2018.

Spain Economic News

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