Spain Economic Outlook
December 20, 2016The formation of a government in October, albeit a weak minority one, after ten months of political stalemate finally enabled the drafting of a revised 2017 budget draft that complies with European deficit targets, which the government sent to the European Commission (EC) on 9 December. In addition to optimistic forecasts for higher revenues caused by solid growth, the draft envisages additional measures to plug the budget shortfall, including tax hikes on special items and the removal of several tax breaks for companies. However, it ignores recommendations from both the EC and the IMF to reduce VAT exemptions, since the Spanish authorities are seeking to avoid jeopardizing the consumption-led economic recovery. The budget amendments will now have to be approved in Spain’s fragmented parliament, which is no easy feat. Despite the political uncertainty, however, the Spanish economy has continued to achieve remarkably strong growth this year. In Q3 it posted quarterly growth of 0.7%, just a notch below Q2’s 0.8%. Household consumption continued to support the economy’s performance, which nonetheless suffered from muted investment growth and a drop in exports.
Spain Economy Data
5 years of Spain economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Bond Yield||1.40||3.41 %||Jan 18|
|Exchange Rate||1.06||-0.77 %||Jan 19|
|Stock Market||9,379||-0.08 %||Jan 19|
Spain Economic Growth
December 20, 2016The economy will moderate in 2017 as the beneficial effects of a weak euro and low oil prices dissipate, wage growth remains stagnant and high long-term unemployment and elevated public debt persist. Our panelists expect the economy to grow 2.3% in 2017, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s estimate. For 2018, the panel sees growth easing to 2.1%.
Spain Economic News
January 4, 2017
The Markit Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) Composite Output Index came in at 55.5 in December, slightly above November’s 55.2 figure and the highest reading since June.
December 30, 2016
Spain’s current account balance recorded a surplus of EUR 2.0 billion in October, which was above both the EUR 1.9 billion surplus observed in the same month of 2015 and the EUR 1.5 billion surplus logged in September 2016—the smallest positive balance in six months.
December 29, 2016
In October, the Spanish Board of Architects (Colegio de Arquitectos Técnicos) granted 5,294 new construction permits, according to data published by the Ministry of Public Works (Ministerio de Fomento).
December 28, 2016
Retail sales in Spain rose 4.0% year-on-year in November, well above October’s mild 0.6% increase.
December 5, 2016
The Markit Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) Composite Output Index came in at 55.2 in November, which was above October’s 54.4 reading.