Spain Economic Forecast

Spain Economic Outlook

March 28, 2017

Spain’s economy rounded out a year of strong growth in 2016, underpinned by solid domestic demand and a well-performing external sector. Economic momentum has not shown any signs of abating in the first quarter of 2017, with industrial output accelerating in January and sentiment among manufacturers and service providers reaching an 18-month high in February. Nonetheless, Spanish households have started to feel the pinch of rising inflation and stagnant wage growth, with retail sales in January declining for the first time in two years. In the political arena, a dock labor reform bill was voted down by the country’s fragmented parliament on 16 March, underscoring the hardships that the minority government has to confront if it intends to pass any legislation. However, the government has already rallied enough support to pass a 2017 budget, which is slated to be presented to parliament on 4 April.

Spain Economy Data

20112012201320142015
Population (million)46.746.846.646.546.4
GDP per capita (EUR)22,90322,30022,13422,40823,305
GDP (EUR bn)1,0701,0431,0311,0411,081
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)-1.0-2.6-1.71.43.2
Domestic Demand (annual variation in %)-2.7-4.2-4.01.63.8
Consumption (annual variation in %)-2.4-3.6-3.11.23.1
Investment (annual variation in %)-6.9-7.1-2.53.56.4
Exports (G&S, annual variation in %)7.41.14.35.15.4
Imports (G&S, annual variation in %)-0.8-6.2-0.36.47.5
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)-1.4-6.6-1.51.23.2
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)-5.8-7.0-3.90.93.6
Unemployment Rate21.424.826.124.422.1
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-9.5-10.4-6.9-5.9-5.1
Public Debt (% of GDP)69.585.493.799.399.2
Inflation Rate (HICP, annual variation in %, eop)2.43.00.3-1.1-0.1
Inflation Rate (HICP, annual variation in %)3.12.41.5-0.2-0.6
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)6.93.80.6-1.3-2.1
Policy Interest Rate (%)1.000.750.250.050.05
Stock Market (annual variation in %)-13.1-4.721.43.7-7.2
Exchange Rate (vs USD)1.301.321.381.211.09
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1.391.291.331.331.11
Current Account (% of GDP)-3.3-0.21.51.01.4
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)-34.0-2.415.610.215.2
Trade Balance (EUR billion)-46.0-31.0-16.0-24.0-24.0

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Spain Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield1.67-1.47 %Mar 27
Exchange Rate1.09-0.16 %Mar 28
Stock Market10,3890.84 %Mar 28

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Spain Economic Growth

March 28, 2017

Growth is set to experience a mild slowdown this year. Household consumption will moderate somewhat as the pace of job creation slows, wage growth remains muted and inflationary pressures mount. However, upbeat sentiment will encourage high capital expenditure, while the country’s exporting sector will continue to benefit from improved competitiveness and rising global trade. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP growing 2.5% in 2017, unchanged from last month’s forecast. For 2018, the panel sees growth easing to 2.2%.

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