Brazil Economic Forecast

Brazil Economic Outlook

May 16, 2017

Efforts to analyze Brazil’s economic momentum have been complicated by frequent revisions in incoming data by the Statistical Institute due to a change in the base year of comparison. Although incoming data continues to suggest the economy is showing overall signs of improvement, recent data has been mixed and the road to recovery will be long given the severity of the recession. The economic activity index grew at a multi-year high in February, while industrial production fell sharply in March and retail sales plummeted in the same month. President Michel Temer’s proposal to reform the country’s costly social security system cleared one hurdle on 3 May, when it was approved by a lower house committee. Although the reform is vital to help correct fiscal imbalances, it is deeply unpopular among voters and has led to large-scale protests. The reform still needs to clear a number of votes to be passed, which may prove too much of a challenge with an election looming in 2018.

Brazil Economy Data

20112012201320142015
Population (million)197199201203204
GDP per capita (USD)13,24512,36412,27812,1068,792
GDP (USD bn)2,6142,4642,4682,4551,798
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)4.01.93.00.5-3.8
Domestic Demand (annual variation in %)4.61.93.70.3-6.4
Consumption (annual variation in %)4.83.53.52.3-3.9
Investment (annual variation in %)6.80.85.8-4.2-13.9
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)0.4-2.32.1-3.0-8.3
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)6.78.44.32.2-4.4
Unemployment Rate8.07.47.16.88.5
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.5-2.3-3.0-6.0-10.2
Public Debt (% of GDP)51.353.751.556.365.5
Money (annual variation in %)18.79.110.99.96.3
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)6.55.85.96.410.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)6.65.46.26.39.0
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)4.19.15.12.211.3
Policy Interest Rate (%)11.007.2510.0011.7514.25
Stock Market (annual variation in %)-18.17.4-15.5-2.9-13.3
Exchange Rate (vs USD)1.862.052.362.663.96
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1.671.952.162.353.34
Current Account (% of GDP)-2.9-3.0-3.0-4.2-3.3
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-77.0-74.2-74.8-104.2-59.4
Trade Balance (USD billion)29.819.42.3-4.019.7
Exports (USD billion)256243242225191
Imports (USD billion)226223240229171
Exports (annual variation in %)26.8-5.3-0.2-7.0-15.1
Imports (annual variation in %)24.5-1.47.4-4.4-25.2
International Reserves (USD)352373359364356
External Debt (% of GDP)11.413.312.714.418.6

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Brazil Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield11.04-3.07 %May 24
Exchange Rate3.280.24 %May 24
Stock Market63,2570.95 %May 24

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Brazil Economic Growth

May 16, 2017

A gradually improving business environment, higher commodity prices and an improved global backdrop should allow the economy to exit the worst recession in modern history this year. However, growth will be moderate as high unemployment dents household spending. Analysts see GDP expanding a meagre 0.6% in 2017, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. The recovery is seen gaining speed in 2018 and GDP should increase 2.4%.

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