Brazil Economic Outlook
July 12, 2016Brazil’s economy lingered in a deep recession in Q1 as high unemployment and political turmoil hit the domestic economy. However, tentative signs of improvement have begun to emerge suggesting that the economy may be returning from rock bottom. An improvement in the trade balance led the current account to record a surplus for the second consecutive month in May and both consumer and business confidence rose in June. Meanwhile, the country will be thrust further into the international spotlight just as political turmoil comes to a head. Brazil is gearing up to host the summer Olympic Games in August, yet security concerns coupled with the government’s empty coffers are casting a shadow on the event. The Senate will hold an impeachment vote in August for ousted President Dilma Rousseff. It must pass by two-thirds for Rousseff to be removed from office and a number of senators remain undecided. In addition, the Lower House of Congress must elect a new leader after suspended speaker Eduardo Cunha resigned in July on implications that he was involved in a corruption scandal.
Brazil Economy Data
5 years of Brazil economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Bond Yield||11.98||0.0 %||Jul 26|
|Exchange Rate||3.28||-0.28 %||Jul 26|
|Stock Market||56,783||-0.16 %||Jul 26|
Brazil Economic Growth
July 12, 2016The economy is expected to remain in a deep recession this year as political noise has delayed fiscal adjustment and stalled much-needed reforms. While interim President Michel Temer has made some steps forward with reform legislation, it remains to be seen whether he has the support needed to pass bills through Brazil’s divided Congress. FocusEconomics panelists see the economy contracting 3.3% in 2016, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2017, the panel sees the economy starting to recover meekly and growing 0.9%.
Brazil Economic News
July 26, 2016
Consumer confidence continued to improve in July, building on the gains seen in recent months.
July 26, 2016
Brazil’s current account returned to deficit in June after posting two consecutive surpluses.
July 20, 2016
At its 20 July meeting, the Central Bank’s new Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM, Comite de Politica Monetaria) decided to leave the benchmark SELIC interest rate unchanged at 14.25%.
July 14, 2016
In May, economic activity declined 0.5% over the previous month in seasonally-adjusted terms, according to the Central Bank’s monthly indicator for economic activity (IBC-Br, Indice de Atividade Economica do Banco Central).
July 12, 2016
Retail sales (excluding cars and construction) returned to contraction in May, falling 1.0% over the previous month in seasonally-adjusted terms.