Brazil Economic Forecast

Brazil Economic Outlook

April 19, 2016

Brazil entered the deepest recession in over two decades last year as high inflation, abysmal confidence levels and low prices for exports rocked the economy. At the outset of 2016, the recession shows no sign of abating. Industrial production tallied the largest drop since December 2013 in February and consumer confidence fell in March. Moreover, political noise is drawing the government’s focus away from much-needed fiscal adjustments and economic reforms—interfering with a potential recovery. After days of intense debate, the lower house of Congress voted to move forward with impeachment proceedings against President Dilma Rousseff on 17 April. The impeachment hearing will now move to the Senate and if a majority of senators vote to continue with the proceedings, Rousseff will have to step down for a maximum of 180 days while the trial continues.

Brazil Economy Data

20112012201320142015
Population (million)197199201203204
GDP per capita (USD)13,23712,34212,24411,9158,651
GDP (USD bn)2,6132,4592,4612,4161,769
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)3.91.93.00.1-3.8
Domestic Demand (annual variation in %)4.72.13.8-0.9-6.8
Consumption (annual variation in %)4.73.53.51.3-4.0
Investment (annual variation in %)6.70.85.8-4.5-14.1
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)0.4-2.32.1-3.0-8.3
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)6.78.44.32.2-4.3
Unemployment Rate8.07.47.16.88.5
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.5-2.3-3.0-6.1-10.4
Public Debt (% of GDP)35.132.931.233.738.5
Money (annual variation in %)18.79.110.99.96.2
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)6.55.85.96.410.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)6.65.46.26.39.0
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)4.19.15.12.211.3
Policy Interest Rate (%)11.007.2510.0011.7514.25
Stock Market (annual variation in %)-18.17.4-15.5-2.9-13.3
Exchange Rate (vs USD)1.862.052.362.663.96
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1.671.952.162.353.34
Current Account (% of GDP)-2.9-3.0-3.0-4.3-3.3
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-77.0-74.2-74.8-104.2-58.9
Trade Balance (USD billion)29.819.42.3-4.019.7
Exports (USD billion)256243242225191
Imports (USD billion)226223240229171
Exports (annual variation in %)26.8-5.3-0.2-7.0-15.1
Imports (annual variation in %)24.5-1.47.4-4.4-25.2
International Reserves (USD)352373359364356
External Debt (% of GDP)11.412.712.514.619.1

Sample Report

5 years of Brazil economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.

Download

Sample Report

Get a sample report showing all the data and analysis covered in our Regional, Country and Commodities reports.

Download

Brazil Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield12.820.20 %Apr 26
Exchange Rate3.53-0.73 %Apr 26
Stock Market53,0832.35 %Apr 26

Brazil Economic Growth

April 19, 2016

The recession is expected to continue throughout this year as political uncertainty impedes an improvement in confidence levels and reform implementation. FocusEconomics panelists see the economy contracting 3.5% in 2016, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2017, the panel sees the economy recovering slightly and growing 0.7%.

Brazil Economic News

Search form