Brazil Economic Outlook
September 15, 2015Brazil’s economy contracted more than expected in the second quarter of 2015 and entered into technical recession. Latin America’s largest economy was dragged down by a deterioration of both domestic and external demand. Corruption scandals have pushed confidence levels to record lows, weighing on private consumption and fixed investment, while lackluster external demand and low commodity prices took their toll on the external sector. More recent data suggest that the economy is continuing to struggle at the outset of Q3. Industrial production shrunk in July and confidence indicators remained depressed in August. The economy’s poor performance has hurt tax revenues and on 31 August the government presented a budget with a primary deficit for the first time in Brazil’s modern history. The budget confirms that the government’s efforts to correct the country’s sinking finances have come up alarmingly short. Moreover, corruption scandals have eroded the government’s support in Congress and led to the watering down or stalling of key legislation.
Brazil Economic Data
5 years of Brazil economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
See all the data and analysis available in each of our Regional and Country reports.
|Bond Yield||15.54||0.45 %||Oct 01|
|Exchange Rate||4.01||1.54 %||Oct 01|
|Stock Market||45,313||0.56 %||Oct 01|
Brazil Economic Growth
September 15, 2015LatinFocus panelists see the economy recording its largest contraction since 1990 this year. Austerity measures, high inflation and depressed confidence are expected to dampen private consumption further and cement the economy’s downward trajectory. LatinFocus panelists see the economy contracting 2.4% in 2015, which is down 0.7 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2016, panelists see the economy remaining in a contraction and falling 0.3% (previous estimate: +0.3%).
Brazil Economic News
October 1, 2015
Business sentiment fell in September, according to the Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV, Fundaçao Getulio Vargas) business confidence indicator.
October 1, 2015
The Markit manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose from August’s 45.8, which had marked the lowest reading since September 2011, to 47.0 in September.
September 28, 2015
In September, the consumer confidence index published by the Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV, Fundaçao Getulio Vargas) fell a seasonally-adjusted 5.3% over the previous month, which followed the 1.7% decrease recorded in August.
September 25, 2015
In August, the current account balance registered a deficit of USD 2.5 billion, which was a notable improvement from the USD 6.9 billion deficit recorded in the same month last year.
September 21, 2015
In July, economic activity recorded zero growth over the previous month in seasonally-adjusted terms, according to the Central Bank’s monthly indicator for economic activity (IBC-Br, Indice de Atividade Economica do Banco Central).