Brazil Economic Outlook
November 10, 2015Latin America’s largest economy continues to show signs of being stuck in a prolonged recession. After recording the sharpest fall in over six years in the second quarter, recent data suggest that recovery remains elusive in the second half of the year. Economic activity contracted in August and the manufacturing PMI fell to a six-year-low in October. In addition, confidence is languishing at low levels and consumer confidence plummeted to a new record low in October. The economy is unlikely to see a significant rebound without much-needed economic reforms, however political wrangling is stalling the government’s attempts at reform. President Dilma Rousseff’s approval ratings have fallen to all-time lows and she is facing a large amount of opposition in Congress, which has watered down a number of austerity measures. As a result of the large challenges to fiscal consolidation, poor growth prospects and the government’s rising debt burden, Fitch Ratings downgraded Brazil to BBB- from BBB, one notch above junk bond status in October.
Brazil Economy Data
5 years of Brazil economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
See all the data and analysis available in each of our Regional and Country reports.
|Bond Yield||15.47||1.64 %||Nov 25|
|Exchange Rate||3.74||1.15 %||Nov 25|
|Stock Market||46,867||-2.94 %||Nov 25|
Brazil Economic Growth
November 10, 2015Brazil’s economy is expected to record the largest contraction in over a decade in 2015, plagued by depressed private consumption and low prices for commodities. FocusEconomics panelists see the economy contracting 2.9% in 2015, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2016, the panel sees the economy remaining in a contraction and falling 1.1%.
Brazil Economic News
November 25, 2015
At its 25 November meeting, the Central Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM, Comite de Politica Monetaria) decided to leave the benchmark SELIC interest rate unchanged at 14.25%.
November 18, 2015
In September, economic activity fell 0.5% over the previous month in seasonally-adjusted terms, according to the Central Bank’s monthly indicator for economic activity (IBC-Br, Indice de Atividade Economica do Banco Central).
November 12, 2015
Retail sales continued to contract in September, recording an eighth consecutive drop.
November 6, 2015
Consumer prices in October increased 0.82% over the previous month.
November 4, 2015
In September, industrial production contracted 1.3% over the previous month on a seasonally-adjusted basis, which was a more pronounced contraction than the revised 0.9% decrease (previously reported: -1.2% month-on-month) seen in August.