Brazil Economic Forecast

Brazil Economic Outlook

March 14, 2017

The dynamics of Latin America’s largest economy are bleak. The economy failed to make significant gains in the fourth quarter of last year and GDP recorded another steep contraction, holding the country in its worst recession on record. High unemployment, austerity measures and tight monetary policy are hampering a recovery and data for the first quarter of 2017 point to muted gains. Industrial output shrank in January and business confidence fell in February, while consumer confidence and the manufacturing PMI both improved in the same month. In a bid to support the economy, the government launched an infrastructure concession program this month that seeks to kick-start investment for infrastructure. The program will begin on 16 March with auctions for a number of the country’s airports and hopes to raise over USD 14 billion in new investments.

Brazil Economy Data

Population (million)197199201203204
GDP per capita (USD)13,23712,34212,24411,9158,651
GDP (USD bn)2,6132,4592,4612,4161,769
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)
Domestic Demand (annual variation in %)
Consumption (annual variation in %)
Investment (annual variation in %)
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)0.4-2.32.1-3.0-8.3
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)
Unemployment Rate8.
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.5-2.3-3.0-6.1-10.4
Public Debt (% of GDP)35.132.931.233.738.5
Money (annual variation in %)
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)
Policy Interest Rate (%)11.007.2510.0011.7514.25
Stock Market (annual variation in %)-18.17.4-15.5-2.9-13.3
Exchange Rate (vs USD)1.862.052.362.663.96
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1.671.952.162.353.34
Current Account (% of GDP)-2.9-3.0-3.0-4.3-3.3
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-77.0-74.2-74.8-104.2-58.9
Trade Balance (USD billion)29.819.42.3-4.019.7
Exports (USD billion)256243242225191
Imports (USD billion)226223240229171
Exports (annual variation in %)26.8-5.3-0.2-7.0-15.1
Imports (annual variation in %)24.5-1.47.4-4.4-25.2
International Reserves (USD)352373359364356
External Debt (% of GDP)11.412.712.514.619.1

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Brazil Facts

Bond Yield10.231.29 %Mar 28
Exchange Rate3.140.47 %Mar 28
Stock Market64,6400.52 %Mar 28

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Brazil Economic Growth

March 14, 2017

GDP is poised to return to growth this year thanks to lower inflation, improved confidence and a less-tight monetary policy. However, the improvement will be marginal due to high unemployment and austerity measures and political noise remains a risk to the outlook. Analysts see GDP growth at 0.6% in 2017, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. The recovery is seen gaining speed in 2018 and GDP should increase 2.3%.

Brazil Economic News

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