Brazil Economic Outlook
October 11, 2016High frequency data suggest that Brazil’s deep recession continued to abate in Q3, after GDP recorded the smallest fall in one year in Q2. Confidence indicators have led the improvement in data: business confidence hit an over two-year high in September, while consumer confidence came in at the highest level since January 2015. However, depleted government finances remain a source of concern and tax revenues in August were the lowest in seven years for that month. On the political front, a reduction in political noise following Rousseff’s impeachment has led the government to turn its attention to much-needed reforms. It announced a privatization plan in September and presented a critical constitutional amendment to cap public spending to Congress in October. While these are steps in the right direction, a number of hurdles lie in the way of implementation. The constitutional amendment must pass by two-thirds in both houses of Congress and it remains to be seen if President Michel Temer can gather the support needed. Recent opinion polls show that Temer is facing an abysmal public approval rating of under 30%.
Brazil Economy Data
5 years of Brazil economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Bond Yield||11.09||-0.72 %||Oct 20|
|Exchange Rate||3.14||-0.83 %||Oct 20|
|Stock Market||63,838||0.52 %||Oct 20|
Brazil Economic Growth
October 11, 2016Brazil’s economy is expected to remain in a deep recession this year as austerity measures, tight credit conditions and high unemployment weigh on consumption. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect that the economy will drop 3.2% in 2016, which is unchanged from last month's projection. Next year, the panel expects GDP growth to rebound to a 1.0% expansion.
Brazil Economic News
October 19, 2016
At its 19 October meeting, the Central Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM, Comite de Politica Monetaria) decided to cut the benchmark SELIC interest rate for the first time in four years, lowering it from 14.25% to 14.00%.
October 18, 2016
Retail sales (excluding cars and construction) fell 0.6% in August from the previous month in seasonally-adjusted terms.
October 7, 2016
Consumer prices in September increased 0.08% over the previous month, the lowest rise since July 2014.
October 4, 2016
In August, industrial production plunged 3.8% over the previous month in seasonally-adjusted terms, which significantly contrasted the 0.1% expansion recorded in July and marked the worst result since January 2012.
October 3, 2016
The Markit manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose slightly in September, increasing from August’s 45.7 to 46.0.