Brazil Economic Forecast

Brazil Economic Outlook

August 8, 2017

President Michel Temer survived the vote on 2 August in Congress and avoided the possibility of being tried for corruption. An interruption of the government‘s reform agenda was thus sidestepped for now, although political noise is still high. The government is trying to pass a critical pension reform by October and a tax overhaul by the end of the year, two badly needed measures to correct imbalances in the hobbled economy. However, Temer is not off the hook yet and is facing abysmal approval ratings along with the likelihood that the public prosecutor’s office will file more corruption-related cases against him in the coming months. Meanwhile, economic data has been mixed in recent months, suggesting that the recovery remains shaky. Industrial production growth stuttered in June and the manufacturing PMI fell in July, although a recent increase in commodities prices bodes well for exports.

Brazil Economy Data

Population (million)199201203204206
GDP per capita (USD)12,36412,27812,1068,7928,731
GDP (USD bn)2,4642,4682,4551,7981,799
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)
Domestic Demand (annual variation in %)
Consumption (annual variation in %)
Investment (annual variation in %)0.85.8-4.2-13.9-10.2
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)-2.32.1-3.0-8.3-6.5
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)
Unemployment Rate7.
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.3-3.0-6.0-10.2-9.0
Public Debt (% of GDP)53.751.556.365.569.9
Money (annual variation in %)
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)
Policy Interest Rate (%)7.2510.0011.7514.2513.75
Stock Market (annual variation in %)7.4-15.5-2.9-13.338.9
Exchange Rate (vs USD)2.052.362.663.963.25
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1.952.162.353.343.48
Current Account (% of GDP)-3.0-3.0-4.2-3.3-1.3
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-74.2-74.8-104.2-59.4-23.5
Trade Balance (USD billion)19.42.3-4.019.747.7
Exports (USD billion)243242225191185
Imports (USD billion)223240229171138
Exports (annual variation in %)-5.3-0.2-7.0-15.1-3.1
Imports (annual variation in %)-1.47.4-4.4-25.2-19.8
International Reserves (USD)373359364356365
External Debt (% of GDP)13.312.714.418.618.0

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Brazil Facts

Bond Yield10.110.80 %Aug 16
Exchange Rate3.15-0.54 %Aug 16
Stock Market68,5940.35 %Aug 16

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Brazil Economic Growth

August 8, 2017

After two consecutive downgrades to Brazil’s outlook, our panelists held their forecasts unchanged this month. The shaky political scene is dampening confidence in the economy, however an aggressive loosening of monetary conditions and low inflation will provide support to activity. The FocusEconomics panel sees GDP expanding a meagre 0.4% in 2017. The recovery is seen gaining speed in 2018 and GDP should increase 2.0%.

Brazil Economic News

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