Brazil Economic Forecast

Brazil Economic Outlook

April 11, 2017

Monthly data is suggesting that the economy has turned a corner, after GDP contracted sharply in 2016. The manufacturing PMI recorded the best result in over two years in March and both business and consumer confidence rested at multi-year highs. In addition, the country logged a record USD 7.1 billion trade surplus in March, aided by strengthening commodity prices. However, dynamics are still weak, highlighted by a worsening in the labor market in February. On the political front, after a successful 2016, the Temer administration’s ambitious pension overhaul is facing significant opposition in congress. The government announced it will unveil a slimmed down version of the reform on 18 April, after surveys showed that the reform had very little congressional support ahead of general elections in 2018. Brazil has one of the world’s most generous pension systems and reform is vital to put public finances on a more sustainable path.

Brazil Economy Data

20122013201420152016
Population (million)199201203204-  
GDP per capita (USD)12,36412,27812,1068,792-  
GDP (USD bn)2,4642,4682,4551,798-  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)1.93.00.5-3.8-  
Domestic Demand (annual variation in %)1.93.70.3-6.4-  
Consumption (annual variation in %)3.53.52.3-3.9-  
Investment (annual variation in %)0.85.8-4.2-13.9-  
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)-2.32.1-3.0-8.3-  
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)8.44.32.2-4.4-  
Unemployment Rate7.47.16.88.5-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.3-3.0-6.0-10.2-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)53.751.556.365.5-  
Money (annual variation in %)9.110.99.96.3-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)5.85.96.410.7-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)5.46.26.39.0-  
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)9.15.12.211.3-  
Policy Interest Rate (%)7.2510.0011.7514.25-  
Stock Market (annual variation in %)7.4-15.5-2.9-13.3-  
Exchange Rate (vs USD)2.052.362.663.96-  
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1.952.162.353.34-  
Current Account (% of GDP)-3.0-3.0-4.2-3.3-  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-74.2-74.8-104.2-59.4-  
Trade Balance (USD billion)19.42.3-4.019.7-  
Exports (USD billion)243242225191-  
Imports (USD billion)223240229171-  
Exports (annual variation in %)-5.3-0.2-7.0-15.1-  
Imports (annual variation in %)-1.47.4-4.4-25.2-  
International Reserves (USD)373359364356-  
External Debt (% of GDP)13.312.714.418.6-  

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Brazil Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield10.130.70 %Apr 06
Exchange Rate3.140.72 %Apr 06
Stock Market64,223-0.85 %Apr 06

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Brazil Economic Growth

April 11, 2017

The economy should begin to recover from the worst recession in modern history this year on the back of lower inflation, improved confidence and less-tight monetary policy. However, growth will be marginal overall and analysts see GDP expanding a meagre 0.5% in 2017, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. The recovery is seen gaining speed in 2018 and GDP should increase 2.4%.

Brazil Economic News

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