Brazil Economic Outlook
February 14, 2017Economic data have picked up from rock bottom, suggesting that the battered economy is nearing a recovery phase. Industrial production recorded the fastest growth in over two years in December, likely supporting a reduced fall in GDP in Q4. At the onset of 2017, signs of improvement continued to emerge, with business and consumer confidence rising in January. On the political front, Rodrigo Maia, an ally of President Michel Temer, was re-elected as speaker on 2 February, improving the prospects for the approval of fiscal austerity measures. Maia has pledged to fast-track the badly needed pension reform, which is key to restoring government finances. The next few months will likely be rocky on the political scene, however, as Temer tries to push through unpopular austerity measures and testimony from a massive corruption scandal is released, which is expected to implicate scores of politicians.
Brazil Economy Data
5 years of Brazil economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Bond Yield||10.29||-0.29 %||Feb 22|
|Exchange Rate||3.06||-1.00 %||Feb 22|
|Stock Market||68,590||-0.67 %||Feb 22|
Brazil Economic Growth
February 14, 2017An environment of lower inflation, improved confidence and easier monetary policy should jumpstart growth this year. However, the recovery will be meagre as austerity measures hamper consumption. Analysts see GDP growth at 0.6% in 2017, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. The recovery is seen gaining speed in 2018 and GDP should increase 2.2%.
Brazil Economic News
February 22, 2017
At its 22 February meeting, the Central Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM, Comite de Politica Monetaria) decided to cut the benchmark SELIC interest rate by 75 basis points, keeping the pace of monetary easing unchanged from January.
February 17, 2017
In December, economic activity contracted 0.3% from the previous month in seasonally-adjusted terms, according to the Central Bank’s monthly indicator for economic activity (IBC-Br, Indice de Atividade Economica do Banco Central).
February 14, 2017
Retail sales in Brazil (excluding cars and construction) plunged in December, despite the holiday season.
February 8, 2017
Consumer prices in January increased 0.38% over the previous month, which was above December’s 0.30% rise and undershot the 0.48% figure analysts had expected.
February 1, 2017
The Markit manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for Brazil fell to the lowest level in 7 months in January.