Brazil Economic Outlook
July 14, 2015Gloomy data continues to emerge from Latin America’s largest economy. After two consecutive quarters of growth, Brazil returned to contraction in the first quarter of 2015, driven largely by shrinking private consumption which recorded its worst result since Q4 2008. Economic activity tallied a second consecutive contraction in April and business confidence fell to a new record low in June. Moreover, the government’s austerity measures and economic reforms that were designed to correct fiscal imbalances have become increasingly unpopular. President Dilma Rousseff’s approval ratings have fallen to an all-time low and her administration is facing intensifying opposition in Congress. On 8 July, Congress approved a bill that raises retirement benefits and directly opposes Rousseff’s austerity agenda. While it is widely expected that Rousseff will veto the bill, increasing dissent in Congress will make it difficult for the government to move forward with additional reforms.
Brazil Economic Data
5 years of Brazil economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
|Bond Yield||13.01||-1.18 %||Jul 30|
|Exchange Rate||3.37||1.22 %||Jul 30|
|Stock Market||49,897||-0.69 %||Jul 30|
Brazil Economic Growth
July 14, 2015Low commodity prices, austerity and depressed confidence levels continue to hamper Brazil’s economic prospects. The economy is expected to worsen this year and record the largest contraction in over two decades. LatinFocus panelists see the economy contracting 1.4% in 2015, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2016, panelists see the economy rebounding and growing 0.8%.
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Brazil Economic News
July 30, 2015
At its 29 July meeting, the Central Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM, Comite de Politica Monetaria) decided to raise the benchmark SELIC interest rate by a further 50 basis points from 13.75% to 14.25%, continuing its tightening cycle.
July 27, 2015
In July, the consumer confidence index published by the Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV, Fundaçao Getulio Vargas) fell a seasonally-adjusted 2.3% over the previous month, which followed the 1.4% decrease recorded in June.
July 23, 2015
In June, the current account balance registered a deficit of USD 2.5 billion, which was an improvement from the USD 5.1 billion deficit recorded in the same month last year.
July 14, 2015
In May, retail sales (excluding cars and construction) fell 0.9% over the previous month in seasonally-adjusted terms, which was a deterioration from April’s revised 0.5% decrease (previously reported: -0.4% month-on-month) and market analysts’ expectation of a 0.3% contraction.
July 10, 2015
In July, the Brazilian real (BRL) continued the downward trend that started in April 2014, falling against the U.S. dollar.