Brazil Economic Forecast

Brazil Economic Outlook

July 11, 2017

The political scene has gone from bad to worse in recent weeks, jeopardizing the economy’s recovery. The attorney general charged President Michel Temer with accepting millions of dollars in bribes on 26 June, making him the first sitting leader in Brazil’s history to face criminal charges. The move was the latest in a lengthy inquiry that has seen dozen of politicians, including cabinet members, placed under investigation or charged for corruption. While at this point, it seems unlikely that Temer will be found guilty—two-thirds of the Lower House of Congress must vote in favor of a trial for the case to move to the supreme court—the accusations have further dented Temer’s already abysmal popularity and are threatening his economic reforms. On 30 June, a nationwide protest was held against labor and pension reforms. The political unrest dampened both consumer and business confidence in June, although less-recent hard data suggests that a moderate recovery is underway. Industrial production expanded for a second consecutive month and the unemployment rate fell in May

Brazil Economy Data

20112012201320142015
Population (million)197199201203204
GDP per capita (USD)13,24512,36412,27812,1068,792
GDP (USD bn)2,6142,4642,4682,4551,798
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)4.01.93.00.5-3.8
Domestic Demand (annual variation in %)4.61.93.70.3-6.4
Consumption (annual variation in %)4.83.53.52.3-3.9
Investment (annual variation in %)6.80.85.8-4.2-13.9
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)0.4-2.32.1-3.0-8.3
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)6.78.44.32.2-4.4
Unemployment Rate8.07.47.16.88.5
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.5-2.3-3.0-6.0-10.2
Public Debt (% of GDP)51.353.751.556.365.5
Money (annual variation in %)18.79.110.99.96.3
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)6.55.85.96.410.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)6.65.46.26.39.0
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)4.19.15.12.211.3
Policy Interest Rate (%)11.007.2510.0011.7514.25
Stock Market (annual variation in %)-18.17.4-15.5-2.9-13.3
Exchange Rate (vs USD)1.862.052.362.663.96
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1.671.952.162.353.34
Current Account (% of GDP)-2.9-3.0-3.0-4.2-3.3
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-77.0-74.2-74.8-104.2-59.4
Trade Balance (USD billion)29.819.42.3-4.019.7
Exports (USD billion)256243242225191
Imports (USD billion)226223240229171
Exports (annual variation in %)26.8-5.3-0.2-7.0-15.1
Imports (annual variation in %)24.5-1.47.4-4.4-25.2
International Reserves (USD)352373359364356
External Debt (% of GDP)11.413.312.714.418.6

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Brazil Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield10.11-0.59 %Jul 26
Exchange Rate3.14-1.07 %Jul 26
Stock Market65,011-1.00 %Jul 26

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Brazil Economic Growth

July 11, 2017

The political turbulence caused a second consecutive downgrade to Brazil’s outlook this month. The FocusEconomics panel sees GDP expanding a meagre 0.4% in 2017, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. The recovery is seen gaining speed in 2018 and GDP should increase 2.0%.

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