Brazil Economic Forecast

Brazil Economic Outlook

February 14, 2017

Economic data have picked up from rock bottom, suggesting that the battered economy is nearing a recovery phase. Industrial production recorded the fastest growth in over two years in December, likely supporting a reduced fall in GDP in Q4. At the onset of 2017, signs of improvement continued to emerge, with business and consumer confidence rising in January. On the political front, Rodrigo Maia, an ally of President Michel Temer, was re-elected as speaker on 2 February, improving the prospects for the approval of fiscal austerity measures. Maia has pledged to fast-track the badly needed pension reform, which is key to restoring government finances. The next few months will likely be rocky on the political scene, however, as Temer tries to push through unpopular austerity measures and testimony from a massive corruption scandal is released, which is expected to implicate scores of politicians.

Brazil Economy Data

20112012201320142015
Population (million)197199201203204
GDP per capita (USD)13,23712,34212,24411,9158,651
GDP (USD bn)2,6132,4592,4612,4161,769
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)3.91.93.00.1-3.8
Domestic Demand (annual variation in %)4.72.13.8-0.9-6.8
Consumption (annual variation in %)4.73.53.51.3-4.0
Investment (annual variation in %)6.70.85.8-4.5-14.1
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)0.4-2.32.1-3.0-8.3
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)6.78.44.32.2-4.3
Unemployment Rate8.07.47.16.88.5
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.5-2.3-3.0-6.1-10.4
Public Debt (% of GDP)35.132.931.233.738.5
Money (annual variation in %)18.79.110.99.96.2
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)6.55.85.96.410.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)6.65.46.26.39.0
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)4.19.15.12.211.3
Policy Interest Rate (%)11.007.2510.0011.7514.25
Stock Market (annual variation in %)-18.17.4-15.5-2.9-13.3
Exchange Rate (vs USD)1.862.052.362.663.96
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1.671.952.162.353.34
Current Account (% of GDP)-2.9-3.0-3.0-4.3-3.3
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-77.0-74.2-74.8-104.2-58.9
Trade Balance (USD billion)29.819.42.3-4.019.7
Exports (USD billion)256243242225191
Imports (USD billion)226223240229171
Exports (annual variation in %)26.8-5.3-0.2-7.0-15.1
Imports (annual variation in %)24.5-1.47.4-4.4-25.2
International Reserves (USD)352373359364356
External Debt (% of GDP)11.412.712.514.619.1

Sample Report

5 years of Brazil economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.

Download

Sample Report

Get a sample report showing all the data and analysis covered in our Regional, Country and Commodities reports.

Download

Brazil Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield10.29-0.29 %Feb 22
Exchange Rate3.06-1.00 %Feb 22
Stock Market68,590-0.67 %Feb 22

Brazil Economic Growth

February 14, 2017

An environment of lower inflation, improved confidence and easier monetary policy should jumpstart growth this year. However, the recovery will be meagre as austerity measures hamper consumption. Analysts see GDP growth at 0.6% in 2017, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. The recovery is seen gaining speed in 2018 and GDP should increase 2.2%.

Brazil Economic News

Search form