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Brazil Inflation

Brazil Inflation

Inflation in Brazil

Brazil's inflation from 2013 to 2022 was characterized by volatility, with rates frequently fluctuating between 5% and 10%. Economic and political instability, fluctuating commodity prices, and shifts in fiscal policies largely influenced these changes. High inflation periods were marked by currency depreciation and fiscal deficits. Towards the end of the decade, Brazil faced challenges in controlling inflation, particularly due to the economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and rising global commodity prices.

Consumer price inflation in Brazil averaged 6.2% in the ten years to 2022, below the Latin America regional average of 8.4%. The 2022 average figure was 9.3%. For more inflation information, visit our dedicated page.

Brazil Inflation Chart

Note: This chart displays Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %) for Brazil from 2014 to 2023.
Source: Macrobond.

Brazil Inflation Data

2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) 3.7 3.2 8.3 9.3 4.6
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop) 4.3 4.5 10.1 5.8 4.6

Inflation increases in May for first time in eight months

Inflation inched up to 3.9% in May, above April’s 3.7%. The acceleration was roughly in line with market expectations, and broke a seven-month streak of cooling price pressures. Looking at the details of the release, the pick-up was broad-based, with greater price pressures recorded for transportation, food and beverages, as well as housing and utilities. Meanwhile, the trend was unchanged, with annual average inflation remaining at April's 4.3% in May. Meanwhile, core inflation was also steady, coming in at April's 3.8% in May. Finally, consumer prices increased a seasonally adjusted 0.46% over the previous month in May, picking up from the 0.38% rise recorded in April.

Our Consensus is for the disinflation process to stall and inflation to stabilize close to current levels in what remains of 2024, at a level below 2023’s average. As such, inflation will remain within the Central Bank of Brazil’s 1.5–4.5% tolerance band but above the midpoint through the end of our forecast horizon in 2028. Extreme weather events, stronger-than-anticipated wage growth and a weaker-than-expected real are upside risks.

Consensus Forecasts and Projections for the next ten years

How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Brazilian inflation projections for the next ten years from a panel of 39 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable inflation forecast available for Brazilian inflation.

Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Brazilian inflation projections.

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