Inflation in Brazil
Brazil's inflation from 2013 to 2022 was characterized by volatility, with rates frequently fluctuating between 5% and 10%. Economic and political instability, fluctuating commodity prices, and shifts in fiscal policies largely influenced these changes. High inflation periods were marked by currency depreciation and fiscal deficits. Towards the end of the decade, Brazil faced challenges in controlling inflation, particularly due to the economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and rising global commodity prices.
Consumer price inflation in Brazil averaged 6.2% in the ten years to 2022, below the Latin America regional average of 8.4%. The 2022 average figure was 9.3%. For more inflation information, visit our dedicated page.
Brazil Inflation Chart
Brazil Inflation Data
|Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop)||3.7||3.7||3.2||8.3||9.3|
|Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop)||3.7||4.3||4.5||10.1||5.8|
Inflation decreases in October
Inflation came in at 4.8% in October, down from September’s 5.2%. October’s print undershot market expectations; nevertheless, it remained well above the 3.25% target of the Central Bank of Brazil (BCB) for 2023. Looking at the details of the release, the moderation chiefly reflected prices for transportation rising at a softer pace in October. The rate of increase in prices for food and beverages, as well as clothing, also slowed during the month. Accordingly, the trend pointed down, with annual average inflation falling to 4.8% in October (September: 4.9%). Finally, consumer prices increased by a seasonally adjusted 0.24% in October over the previous month, broadly unchanged from the 0.26% increase seen in September.
A favorable base effect and slower year-on-year increases in prices for transportation helped to reduce the headline inflation reading. In October, core inflation also cooled, slowing to a 27-month low of 5.6% (September: 6.0%). Following October’s inflation downtick, the BCB will likely deliver another 50 basis point cut to its benchmark SELIC rate when it next convenes on 12–13 December, continuing on its announced monetary policy path. In the coming quarters, inflation is expected to average below its current level, but the decrease will be limited by a more challenging base effect and lower interest rates supporting activity. A stronger-than-anticipated El Niño and higher-than-expected oil prices pose upside risks.
How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Brazilian inflation projections for the next ten years from a panel of 42 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable inflation forecast available for Brazilian inflation.
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