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Brazil GDP

Brazil GDP

Economic Growth in Brazil

Brazil's GDP growth between 2013 and 2022 was characterized by economic turbulence and modest recoveries. The country entered a severe recession in 2015-2016, driven by political instability and declining commodity prices. Subsequent years saw gradual recovery, although growth remained sluggish. The COVID-19 pandemic brought another downturn, but the economy showed resilience in 2021-2022, partly due to commodity exports and strong fiscal stimulus.

The Brazilian economy recorded an average growth rate of 0.6% in the decade to 2022, below the 1.3% average for Latin America. In 2022, Brazil's real GDP growth was 2.9%. For more GDP information, visit our dedicated page.

Brazil GDP Chart

Note: This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) for Brazil from 2013 to 2022.
Source: IBGE.

Brazil GDP Data

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 1.8 1.2 -3.3 4.8 3.0
GDP (USD bn) 1,917 1,873 1,477 1,670 1,952
GDP (BRL bn) 7,004 7,389 7,610 9,012 10,080
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) 6.4 5.5 3.0 18.4 11.8

GDP grows at softest pace since Q4 2022 in Q3; still beats market expectations

The Brazilian economy largely stagnated in the third quarter of 2023, when GDP growth waned to 0.1% on a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis, down from 1.0% in the second quarter. Q3's reading marked the slowest growth since Q4 2022, but still surprised markets to the upside. On an annual basis, economic growth moderated to 2.0% in Q3, from the previous period's 3.5% growth. Q3's reading marked the weakest reading since Q1 2022.

The quarterly slowdown chiefly reflected public spending growth softening to 0.5% in Q3 (Q2: +1.0% s.a. qoq). Moreover, fixed investment declined at a quicker rate of 2.5% in Q3, from the 0.3% contraction logged in the previous quarter, largely reflecting high interest rates dampening construction activity. More positively, household spending picked up by 1.1% seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter in the third quarter (Q2: +0.9% s.a. qoq), which marked the best reading since Q2 2022. Household consumption was supported by public welfare programs, lower average inflation, a lower unemployment rate and continued credit growth. Turning to the external sector, exports of goods and services growth waned to 3.0% in Q3 (Q2: +3.5% s.a. qoq). Meanwhile, imports of goods and services deteriorated, contracting 2.1% in Q3 (Q2: +4.1% s.a. qoq).

Despite weak Q3 data and October’s disappointing economic activity data—a GDP proxy—the largest economy in Latin America had grown 3.2% year on year through September. With another year-on-year expansion forecast for Q4 2023, GDP is on track to have tallied a 3.0% expansion—in line with our Consensus—in the year as a whole. That would bring 2023’s growth far above the 0.8% predicted as of January 2023. The economy was surprisingly resilient to tight monetary policy throughout the year, and beat growth expectations up to and including Q3, largely thanks to a bumper harvest, receding inflation and robust government spending.

On 2024 GDP growth, analysts at the EIU commented: “Higher social spending, minimum-wage rises and a boost to credit from a recently implemented household debt structuring programme for up to 30m people, will put a floor under private consumption and support GDP growth. However, fiscal and debt dynamics will not be strong enough to bring down local financing costs substantially, and this will weigh on investment. […] The tax simplification reform […] augurs well for long-term growth.”

Consensus Forecasts and Projections for the next ten years

How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Brazilian GDP projections for the next ten years from a panel of 53 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable GDP forecast available for Brazilian GDP.

Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Brazilian GDP projections.

Want to get access to the full dataset of Brazilian GDP forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.

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