CIS Countries Economic Outlook
CIS Plus economic growth is forecast to fall to roughly half its 2024 pace in 2025. A broad slowdown is expected across nearly all regional economies, with Russia and Belarus set to experience the steepest decelerations. By contrast, the Caucasus and Central Asia will maintain robust expansions. The main wildcard remains the course of Russia–Ukraine peace talks.
CIS Countries Inflation
So far in 2025, regional inflation has averaged close to 10%—far exceeding the global average—due to strong price pressures in numerous economies, notably Russia and Ukraine. For 2025 as a whole, regional inflation should reach its highest level since 2022. An escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict deepening shortages and infrastructure damage is an upside risk.
This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for CIS Countries from 2010 to 2023.
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) | 79 | 204 | 341 | 92 | 89 |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 43.6 | 37.3 | 28.3 | 28.3 | 26.7 |
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | -2.0 | 5.3 | -1.4 | 4.4 | 5.5 |
| Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 487 | 712 | 835 | 651 | 665 |
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 7,055 | 8,571 | 10,211 | 9,988 | 10,530 |
| Private Consumption (annual variation in %) | -4.9 | 9.1 | -1.4 | 7.1 | 5.9 |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 25.3 | 22.0 | 23.6 | 25.7 | 26.8 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | 5.29 | 8.82 | 9.59 | 15.32 | 18.76 |
| Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | 1.1 | 4.8 | 9.1 | 0.7 | 1.0 |
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | -2.6 | 5.5 | -1.9 | 4.0 | 4.5 |
| Investment (annual variation in %) | -5.3 | 7.8 | 4.0 | 13.3 | 6.9 |
| Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 410 | 512 | 501 | 566 | 580 |
| International Reserves (USD bn) | 721 | 759 | 714 | 746 | 775 |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 6.3 | 5.6 | 4.4 | 3.8 | 3.9 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -3.9 | -0.3 | -2.6 | -2.7 | -2.7 |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 4.1 | 7.5 | 14.1 | 7.1 | 7.9 |