CIS Countries Economic Outlook
CIS Plus GDP growth is expected to roughly halve this year from 2024. Almost all economies in the region are seen losing steam, with the slowdowns in Russia and Belarus set to be particularly pronounced due to Western sanctions. The Caucasus and Central Asia will be relatively strong performers. Peace talks between Russia and Ukraine remain the key risk.
CIS Countries Inflation
Regional inflation has been well above the global average at close to 10% so far in 2025 on high price pressures in multiple economies—particularly Russia and Ukraine due to the war. In 2025 as a whole, inflation is forecast to average at the highest level since 2022. An intensification of the war leading to more shortages and infrastructure damage is an upside risk.
This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for CIS Countries from 2010 to 2020.
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Private Consumption (annual variation in %) | -4.9 | 9.1 | -1.4 | 7.1 | 5.9 |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 43.6 | 37.3 | 28.3 | 28.3 | 26.7 |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 6.3 | 5.6 | 4.4 | 3.8 | 3.9 |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 25.3 | 22.0 | 23.6 | 25.7 | 26.8 |
| Investment (annual variation in %) | -5.3 | 7.8 | 4.0 | 13.3 | 6.9 |
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 7,055 | 8,571 | 10,211 | 9,988 | 10,513 |
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | -2.6 | 5.5 | -1.9 | 4.0 | 4.5 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -3.9 | -0.3 | -2.6 | -2.7 | -2.7 |
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | -2.0 | 5.3 | -1.4 | 4.4 | 4.8 |
| Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 410 | 512 | 501 | 566 | 580 |
| International Reserves (USD bn) | 721 | 759 | 714 | 746 | 775 |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 4.1 | 7.5 | 14.1 | 7.1 | 7.9 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | 5.29 | 8.82 | 9.59 | 15.32 | 18.77 |
| Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | 1.1 | 4.8 | 9.1 | 0.7 | 1.0 |
| Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 487 | 712 | 835 | 651 | 664 |