CIS Countries Economic Outlook
Protracted war should drive GDP growth in CIS to a three-year low in 2025. Headwinds include dwindling investment flows and export revenues, elevated interest rates and inflation, and sanctions across most of the region. Still, the Kazakh economy should gain steam, cushioning the regional slowdown. Peace talks between Russia and Ukraine remain the key risk.
CIS Countries Inflation
Regional inflation was unchanged at March’s over two-year high of 10.2% in April. Since January, our panel has hiked by over one percentage point its forecasts for 2025 inflation, which is seen rising further above the pre-Covid decade average on fiscal stimulus plus war-induced price and FX pressures. Goods shortages and a prolonged war are upside risks.
This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for CIS Countries from 2010 to 2024.
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 4.1 | 7.5 | 14.1 | 7.1 | 7.9 |
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | -2.6 | 5.5 | -1.9 | 4.0 | - |
| Private Consumption (annual variation in %) | -4.9 | 9.1 | -1.4 | - | - |
| Investment (annual variation in %) | -5.3 | 7.8 | 4.0 | - | - |
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 7,053 | 8,569 | 10,211 | 9,987 | - |
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | -2.0 | 5.2 | -1.4 | 4.4 | 4.7 |
| Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 410 | 512 | 501 | 566 | 576 |
| International Reserves (USD bn) | 721 | 759 | 714 | 746 | 775 |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 43.5 | 37.3 | 28.3 | - | - |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 6.3 | 5.6 | 4.4 | 3.8 | - |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -3.9 | -0.3 | -2.6 | -2.7 | - |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 25.3 | 22.0 | 23.6 | 25.7 | - |
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | 5.29 | 8.82 | 9.59 | 15.32 | 18.77 |
| Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | 1.1 | 4.8 | 9.1 | 0.7 | - |
| Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 488 | 712 | 834 | 651 | 665 |