CIS Countries Economic Outlook
Our Consensus for 2026 GDP growth declined in the past month on Q1’s disappointing readings in the three major economies. 2026 GDP growth in the CIS Plus region should hit a four-year low as a result of tighter fiscal policy vs 2025 and still-elevated interest rates in major regional economies. Still, higher-for-longer energy prices are an upside risk.
CIS Countries Inflation
In April, regional inflation remained below its 10-year average of 7.2% for a fifth successive month, hinting that price pressures in the region are on a downward trajectory after peaking at a three-year high in 2025. In 2026, inflation should hit a six-year low due to softer household spending growth and still-high interest rates. High energy prices are an upside risk.
This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for CIS Countries from 2010 to 2025.
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 37.4 | 28.4 | 28.5 | 26.6 | 25.9 |
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 8,602 | 10,262 | 9,942 | 10,633 | 12,182 |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 7.5 | 14.1 | 7.2 | 7.9 | 8.9 |
| Private Consumption (ann. var. %) | 9.1 | -2.3 | 8.0 | 7.3 | 4.6 |
| Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) | 7.8 | 3.3 | 15.8 | 8.7 | 2.2 |
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | 5.7 | -1.4 | 4.4 | 4.7 | 1.6 |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 22.1 | 21.1 | 22.6 | 22.7 | 24.6 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | 8.83 | 9.59 | 15.31 | 18.75 | 15.53 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -0.3 | -2.6 | -2.8 | -2.6 | -3.3 |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 5.6 | 4.4 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 3.4 |
| Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 713 | 835 | 652 | 666 | 649 |
| Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) | 202 | 340 | 93 | 92 | 36 |
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | 5.6 | -1.8 | 4.4 | 5.0 | 2.1 |
| Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | 4.8 | 9.0 | 0.7 | 0.9 | -0.5 |
| Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 514 | 502 | 567 | 581 | 614 |
| International Reserves (USD bn) | 759 | 714 | 746 | 775 | 989 |