CIS Countries Economic Outlook
CIS GDP growth should cool from 2024 in 2025 as the Russia-Ukraine war, elevated interest rates and currency weakness curb private spending and fixed investment. Still, Kazakhstan is set to accelerate. Dwindling foreign investment in Ukraine and sanctions elsewhere in the region are downside risks. The outlook hinges crucially on peace negotiations.
CIS Countries Inflation
In January, inflation rose in all CIS countries with available data barring Belarus, driving regional inflation to a 23-month high of 9.6% (December: 9.2%). Following recent forecast hikes, inflation is now seen above 2024 levels in 2025 on war-induced cost pressures and currency weakness. Goods shortages, premature rate cuts and a protracted war are upside risks.
This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for CIS Countries from 2010 to 2020.
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Private Consumption (annual variation in %) | -4.9 | 9.1 | -1.4 | - | - |
| Investment (annual variation in %) | -5.3 | 7.8 | 3.8 | - | - |
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 7,055 | 8,638 | 10,162 | 9,565 | - |
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | -2.6 | 5.5 | -1.8 | 4.0 | - |
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | -2.0 | 5.2 | -1.4 | 4.5 | - |
| Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 410 | 512 | 501 | 566 | - |
| International Reserves (USD bn) | 721 | 759 | 714 | 746 | 775 |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 43.5 | 37.0 | 28.5 | - | - |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 6.3 | 5.6 | 4.4 | 3.8 | - |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -3.9 | -0.3 | -2.6 | - | - |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 25.3 | 21.9 | 23.6 | - | - |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 4.1 | 7.5 | 14.1 | 7.3 | - |
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | 5.29 | 8.82 | 9.61 | 15.31 | 18.70 |
| Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | 1.1 | 4.8 | 9.2 | 0.7 | - |
| Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 488 | 712 | 834 | 651 | - |