CIS Countries Economic Outlook
The CIS economy should lose traction from 2024 in 2025 as protracted war gnaws at activity due to drained investment flows, elevated interest rates and currency weakness. Still, faster momentum in Kazakhstan should cap the slowdown. The outlook hinges on a peace deal, which would likely provide respite to activity in Ukraine and lift sanctions elsewhere in the region.
CIS Countries Inflation
Faster price rises across most of CIS drove regional inflation to a two-year high of 9.8% in February (January: 9.6%). Since January, our panel has hiked by 1.4 percentage points its 2025 inflation forecasts—now above 2024’s rate—on fiscal stimulus plus war-induced cost and currency pressures. Goods shortages, premature rate cuts and a prolonged war are upside risks.
This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for CIS Countries from 2010 to 2024.
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Private Consumption (annual variation in %) | -4.9 | 9.1 | -1.4 | - | - |
| Investment (annual variation in %) | -5.3 | 7.8 | 4.0 | - | - |
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 7,053 | 8,569 | 10,211 | 9,987 | - |
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | -2.6 | 5.5 | -1.9 | 4.0 | - |
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | -2.0 | 5.2 | -1.4 | 4.4 | 4.7 |
| Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 410 | 512 | 501 | 566 | 576 |
| International Reserves (USD bn) | 721 | 759 | 714 | 746 | 775 |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 43.5 | 37.3 | 28.3 | - | - |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 6.3 | 5.6 | 4.4 | 3.8 | - |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -3.9 | -0.3 | -2.6 | -2.7 | - |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 25.3 | 22.0 | 23.6 | 25.7 | - |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 4.1 | 7.5 | 14.1 | 7.1 | - |
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | 5.29 | 8.82 | 9.59 | 15.32 | 18.77 |
| Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | 1.1 | 4.8 | 9.1 | 0.7 | - |
| Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 488 | 712 | 834 | 651 | 665 |