CIS Countries Economic Outlook
In 2026, CIS Plus GDP growth will underperform the world average. But a clear dichotomy will be at play. Belarus, Russia and Ukraine should expand at a pace below the world average due to prolonged conflict and war fatigue; while the Central Asia and Caucasus regions will expand faster than the world average, buttressed by infrastructure spending and solid gold demand.
CIS Countries Inflation
In June, regional inflation rose for the first time in five months as fuel shortages in regional heavyweight Russia fanned price pressures. That said, regional inflation remained below its 10-year average of 7.2%. In 2026, regional inflation should hit a six-year low due to softer household spending growth and still-high interest rates.
This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for CIS Countries from 2010 to 2025.
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | 5.6 | -1.8 | 4.4 | 5.0 | 2.1 |
| Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 713 | 835 | 652 | 666 | 647 |
| Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) | 202 | 340 | 92 | 91 | 32 |
| Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) | 7.8 | 3.3 | 15.8 | 8.8 | 2.3 |
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 8,602 | 10,262 | 9,942 | 10,633 | 12,208 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -0.3 | -2.6 | -2.8 | -2.6 | -3.3 |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 37.4 | 28.4 | 28.5 | 26.6 | 25.6 |
| Private Consumption (ann. var. %) | 9.1 | -2.3 | 8.0 | 7.5 | 4.6 |
| Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 514 | 502 | 568 | 582 | 616 |
| Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | 4.8 | 9.0 | 0.7 | 0.9 | -0.6 |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 7.5 | 14.1 | 7.2 | 7.9 | 8.9 |
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | 5.7 | -1.4 | 4.4 | 4.7 | 1.6 |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 22.1 | 21.1 | 22.6 | 22.7 | 24.6 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | 8.83 | 9.59 | 15.31 | 18.75 | 15.53 |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 5.6 | 4.4 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 3.4 |
| International Reserves (USD bn) | 759 | 714 | 746 | 775 | 989 |