Uruguay Exports

Economic growth picks up in the first quarter of 2026

GDP reading: Uruguay's GDP grew 0.9% on a year-on-year basis in Q1, following 0.1% growth in the previous quarter. Nonetheless, growth remained below the 10-year average. In seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter terms, GDP grew 0.8% in Q1, following 0.2% growth in the previous quarter.

Drivers: Compared to the previous quarter's data, readings in Q1 improved for private consumption (+2.9% on a year-on-year basis vs +1.9% in Q4), government consumption (+2.9% vs +2.2% in Q4) and exports of goods and services (+2.3% vs -1.9% in Q4). In contrast, readings worsened for fixed investment (-3.1% vs -0.9% in Q4) and imports of goods and services (+4.7% vs +5.1% in Q4). The recovery in exports reflected solid expansions in the meat and services sectors. That said, a severe drought led to poor performance in the agricultural sector, likely weighing on exports as well as on the spending of rural households. Meanwhile, fixed investment contracted due to sluggish construction activity, particularly infrastructure, as well as a drawdown in inventories.

Panelist insight: On the reading and the 2026 growth outlook, EIU analysts commented: “We expect that real GDP growth will slow to 1.3% in 2026 from 1.8% in 2025. Growth for the remainder of the year will remain subdued because of weak consumer and business confidence that weighs on private consumption and investment.”

How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Uruguayan exports projections for the next ten years from a panel of 10 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable exports forecast available for Uruguayan exports.

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