Turkey External Debt (% of GDP)

External Debt in Turkey

Economic growth should have slowed in Q1, as the earthquakes that hit the country in February heavily dented activity in the affected areas; in February, industrial output contracted at the sharpest rate since the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic. Shifting to the current quarter, April data shows some promise: The manufacturing PMI ticked up, while inflation declined. That said, consumers grew more pessimistic in the month. In politics, on 14 May, the country will elect a new president and Parliament. Polls suggest a very tight contest between Erdogan and the opposition. The election could be a turning point. Under Erdogan, the presidential system and unorthodox economic policies would likely remain in place. If the opposition wins, the country could revert to a parliamentary republic and economic orthodoxy.