Argentina:
Inflation came in at 124.4% in August, up from July’s 113.4%. August’s figure represented the highest inflation rate since our...
Inflation in Italy
Italy's inflation rates from 2013 to 2022 generally remained low, often below 2%, reflecting the broader economic trends in the Euro area. The country's economic growth was subdued, which contributed to muted price pressures. However, inflation spiked in 2021 and 2022 due to global supply constraints, a bounceback in domestic demand and surging commodity prices in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
Harmonized consumer price inflation averaged 1.5% in the ten years to 2022, below the Euro Area average of 1.8%. The 2022 average figure was 8.7%. For more inflation information, visit our dedicated page.
Italy Inflation Chart
Note: This chart displays Inflation (HICP, ann. var. %, aop) for Italy from 2014 to 2023.
Source: Macrobond.
Italy Inflation Data
| 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation (HICP, ann. var. %, aop) | 0.6 | -0.1 | 2.0 | 8.7 | 5.9 |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop) | 0.5 | -0.2 | 3.9 | 11.6 | 0.6 |
| Inflation (HICP, ann. var. %, eop) | 0.4 | -0.2 | 4.2 | 12.3 | 0.6 |
| Inflation (PPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 0.2 | -3.3 | 10.7 | 34.4 | -5.6 |
Harmonized inflation increases in June
Harmonized inflation rose to 1.0% in June, following May’s 0.8%. The increase was primarily driven by a softer decline in housing and utilities prices plus stronger price pressures for miscellaneous goods and services. Meanwhile, price rises for food, transport, and recreation, repair and personal care softened from the prior month, and prices for durable goods declined at a faster pace, offsetting some of the overall upward pressure. Annual average harmonized inflation fell to 2.1% in June (May: 2.6%). Meanwhile, consumer price inflation was stable, remaining at May's 0.8% in June. Lastly, harmonized consumer prices increased 0.14% in June over the previous month, slowing down from the 0.27% rise seen in May. June's result marked the softest rise in prices since February.
According to our panelists, harmonized inflation is expected to bottom out in 2024, followed by a slight increase in 2025. This deceleration will be largely driven by a drop in prices of energy and imported goods, which will more than offset strong wage growth. Inflation risks are balanced, with possible upward pressures from commodity price increases and possible downward pressures from a prolonged deterioration in aggregate demand.
Consensus Forecasts and Projections for the next ten years
How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Italian inflation projections for the next ten years from a panel of 38 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable inflation forecast available for Italian inflation.
Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Italian inflation projections.
Want to get access to the full dataset of Italian inflation forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.
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