A town in Estonia

Estonia GDP

Estonia GDP

Economic Growth in Estonia

Estonia's economy recorded an average growth rate of 2.9% in the decade leading to 2022, significantly above the Euro Area's average of 1.4%. However in 2022, the real GDP growth was -0.5%. For more GDP information, visit our dedicated page.

Estonia GDP Chart

Note: This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) for Estonia from 2014 to 2023.
Source: Statistics Estonia.

Estonia GDP Data

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 3.8 4.0 -1.0 7.2 -0.5
GDP (USD bn) 30.6 31.3 31.3 36.8 37.9
GDP (EUR bn) 25.9 28.0 27.4 31.2 36.0
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) 8.8 7.8 -1.9 13.6 15.5

GDP records sharpest contraction since Q4 2022 in Q3

GDP declined at a quicker pace of 3.9% year on year in the third quarter, below the 2.9% contraction seen in the second quarter. Q3's reading marked the worst reading since Q4 2022. On a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis, GDP declined 1.3% in Q3, following the previous quarter's 0.6% fall. Q3's quarter-on-quarter decline marked the largest decrease since Q4 2022.

Q3’s deterioration stemmed largely from an abysmal performance of the external sector, coupled with prolonged malaise in private spending and weaker public consumption. Household spending declined at a milder rate of 2.4% year on year in Q3 compared to a 3.0% contraction in Q2. Tight monetary conditions and elevated inflation likely ate into household budgets. Miscellaneous goods, clothing and footwear, and recreation and culture saw the largest drops in spending. Additionally, public spending dropped at the sharpest pace since Q2 2023, contracting 0.6% (Q2: +1.8% yoy). Meanwhile, fixed investment bounced back, growing 9.8% in Q3, contrasting the 18.7% decrease logged in the previous quarter. Meanwhile, the external sector weighed heavily on the overall figure against a backdrop of muted EU demand: Exports of goods and services contracted 12.1% in Q3, marking the worst reading since Q2 2020 (Q2: -5.4% yoy). Conversely, imports of goods and services dropped at a slower rate of 6.0% in Q3 (Q2: -8.4% yoy).

Mihkel Nestor, analyst at SEB, commented on the outlook: “Estonia’s export-dependent economy has been hard hit by low demand in the Nordic countries, but a broad-based decline in domestic demand is now also suppressing growth. […] The low tide in foreign trade is especially troublesome for Estonia’s manufacturing sector, which exports most of its output. […] A quick turnaround seems unlikely as new orders dwindle. Being the biggest economic sector in terms of value added and employment, its downturn is affecting many other parts of the economy. A notable recovery of exports will not happen before 2025.”

Consensus Forecasts and Projections for the next ten years

How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Estonian GDP projections for the next ten years from a panel of 14 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable GDP forecast available for Estonian GDP.

Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Estonian GDP projections.

Want to get access to the full dataset of Estonian GDP forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.

Latest Global GDP News

Free sample report

Interested in economic reports, analysis and data? FocusEconomics provides data, forecasts and analysis for hundreds of countries and commodities. Request your free sample report now.

Close Left Media Arrows Left Media Circles Right Media Arrows Right Media Circles Arrow Quote Wave Address Email Telephone Man in front of screen with line chart Document with bar chart and magnifying glass Application window with bar chart Target with arrow Line Chart Stopwatch Globe with arrows Document with bar chart in front of screen Bar chart with magnifying glass and dollar sign Lightbulb Document with bookmark Laptop with download icon Calendar Icon Nav Menu Arrow Arrow Right Long Icon Arrow Right Icon Chevron Right Icon Chevron Left Icon Briefcase Icon Linkedin In Icon Full Linkedin Icon Filter Facebook Linkedin Twitter Pinterest