Portugal GDP

Economy stagnates in Q1 2026

GDP reading: Portugal's GDP stagnated in seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter terms in Q1, following 0.9% growth in the previous quarter. Q1's reading was the weakest since Q1 2025. In annual terms, GDP expanded 2.3% in Q1, following a 1.9% expansion in the prior quarter.

Drivers: Relative to the prior period's data, figures in Q1 softened for private consumption (+0.1% on a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis vs +0.9% in Q4) and government consumption (+0.3% vs +0.4% in Q4). In contrast, readings strengthened for fixed investment (+1.9% vs +1.2% in Q4), exports of goods and services (+2.1% vs -0.5% in Q4) and imports of goods and services (+5.4% vs -2.5% in Q4).

Panelist insight: EIU analysts said: “We have revised down our real GDP growth forecast for 2026 from 2% to 1.8% to reflect weaker private consumption stemming from higher inflation. Conversely, investment is set to remain robust in 2026 and to sustain growth above the EU average.”

How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Portuguese GDP projections for the next ten years from a panel of 29 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable GDP forecast available for Portuguese GDP.

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