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Turkey Industry October 2019

Turkey: Industrial output grows at a stronger pace in October

Annual data suggests the fourth quarter started on a stronger footing, as industrial production grew at an accelerated pace compared to the prior month. In October, industrial output expanded 3.8% year-on-year on a calendar-adjusted basis and this marked the strongest pace of growth since July 2018. While the print was up from the revised 3.6% expansion recorded in September (previously reported: +3.4% year-on-year), it was notably below market expectations of a 6.2% rise in output.

Moreover, October’s result—which benefited from a supportive base effect as output contracted steeply in the same month a year prior—came on the back of a broad-based improvement, with mining and quarrying, manufacturing, and electricity, gas and steam output all rising at an accelerated pace.

On the other hand, industrial production fell 0.9% month-on-month on a seasonally- and calendar-adjusted basis, swinging from the revised 3.4% expansion logged in September (previously reported: +3.2% month-on-month). This hints at a mixed start to the final quarter of the year. Lastly, annual average output fell 3.1% in October, improving from the 3.9% decrease in September.

Going forward, industrial production should continue growing at a steady pace owing to supportive base effects in the months ahead. Consequently, the economic recovery in the Turkey should gain traction heading into the new year although the balance of risks remains tilted to the downside.

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