Russia: Inflation shoots up in November
Latest reading: Inflation rose to 8.9% in November from October’s 8.5%, surprising markets on the upside. November’s figure moved further above the 4.0% target of the Central Bank of Russia (CBR). Looking at the details of the release, the upturn came on the heels of stronger price pressures for food goods and services.
Accordingly, the trend pointed up, with annual average inflation rising to 8.3% in November (October: 8.2%). Moreover, core inflation edged up to 8.3% in November from October’s 8.2%.
Lastly, consumer prices increased 1.43% in November over the previous month, accelerating from October’s 0.75% increase.
Outlook: Our panel expects the disinflation trend to resume in 2025, as a tight monetary stance and a high base effect will tame price pressures. Sluggish domestic demand will add further downward pressure. That said, inflation is forecast to outpace the CBR’s target throughout our forecast horizon to 2029; in 2025, labor shortages plus currency weakness fueling imported inflation will keep price pressures elevated.