Russia Industry December 2019

Russia: Industrial production picks up pace in December

Industrial output rose 2.1% year-on-year in December, accelerating from November’s meagre 0.3% increase which had marked the weakest result since December 2017.

December’s acceleration was spearheaded by a notable upturn in the manufacturing sector. Furthermore, the mining sector continued to gain momentum while contraction in water supply and sewage activities softened significantly compared to the previous month. On a less positive note, electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply dipped for the first time in nine months in December, likely amid warmer than usual weather.

On a monthly basis, industrial production edged up 0.2% in seasonally- and calendar-adjusted terms, rebounding from November’s 0.6% dip. Meanwhile, annual average growth in industrial production remained stable at November’s 2.4%.

Industrial production should gain some traction ahead, as argued by Dmitry Dolgin, chief Russia economist at ING:

“Looking into 2020, we see scope for acceleration in the industrial output growth, mainly thanks to the expected increase in the budget support. […] For now, we keep our previous expectations of industrial output accelerating to 2.7% in 2020 and see some upside risks to this forecast if the government confirms plans to accelerate spending.”

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