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Mexico GDP Q4 2019

Mexico: Economy shrinks for third consecutive quarter in Q4 2019

The economy contracted for the third consecutive quarter in the final stretch of 2019, according to a preliminary GDP estimate released by the Statistical Institute (INEGI) on 30 January. Economic activity fell 0.3% in year-on-year, unadjusted terms in Q4, matching the third quarter’s decline. On a seasonally-adjusted, quarter-on-quarter basis, output flatlined in Q4, also unchanged from the previous quarter’s reading but landing above market expectations. For the year as a whole, GDP shrank 0.1%, contrasting 2018’s 2.1% expansion and marking the first slump since the economic crisis of 2009.

The slip confirmed continued weakness in the secondary sector of the economy. Industrial-sector output fell a sharper 1.8% year-on-year (Q3: -1.4% year-on-year) as construction and mining activity continued to disappoint. Moreover, agricultural production lost considerable steam, expanding 1.9% on an annual basis (Q3: +5.4% yoy). Somewhat more encouragingly, services-sector activity quickened slightly, though remained subdued overall (Q4: +0.2% yoy; Q3: +0.1% yoy).

The INEGI will release a second GDP estimate on 25 February.

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