Eurozone Industry November 2019

Eurozone

Eurozone: Industrial output rebounds timidly in November

January 15, 2020

Industrial output increased a seasonally-adjusted 0.2% over the previous month in November, contrasting October’s 0.9% slump. The reading came slightly below market expectations of a 0.3% expansion.

November’s print was underpinned by a rebound in production of energy and capital goods, which more than offset a downturn in the production of durable and non-durable consumer goods, as well as of intermediate goods.

Looking at the individual economies for which data is available, industrial production expanded in 9 countries in November, including Germany, France and Italy. On the flip side, it contracted in the Netherlands and Portugal, among others.

On an annual basis, industrial production fell 1.5% in November, a softer contraction than October’s 2.6% drop. Lastly, annual average variation in industrial production inched up to minus 1.7% from October’s minus 1.8%.

Commenting on the release, Bert Colijn, Eurozone senior economist at ING, stated:

“Still, today’s data, although positive, does confirm that it is too early to call an end to the eurozone industrial recession. The December manufacturing PMI still indicated that new orders and current production were falling markedly, which shows that the November industrial data should not be considered to be the start of a recovery. While confidence in the future among industrial businesses has started to improve on the positive news on trade, current conditions are still too weak to call a break from trend.”

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see industrial production rising 0.8% in 2020, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. For 2021, panelists see industrial production expanding 1.2%.


Author: Massimo Bassetti, Economist

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Euro Area Industry by country November 2019

Note: Month-on-month var. of seasonally-adjusted industrial production and annual average growth rate in %. Data for Austria, Belgium and Cyprus refers to August.
Source: Eurostat


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