Colombia: Economic activity records joint-worst result in over three years
Economic activity decreased 1.5% year-on-year in March, contrasting February’s 2.2% increase. March’s reading was the joint-lowest since February 2021 and fell short of market expectations. Looking at the details of the release, the agriculture sector swung into contraction in the month. Moreover, industrial activity declined at the fastest pace in seven months, and growth in services moderated. As a result, the trend pointed down, with annual average growth in economic activity coming in at 0.2%, down from February’s 0.5%.
On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, economic activity fell at a sharper rate of 0.8% in March (February: -0.3% s.a. mom), the worst result since July 2023.
Credicorp Capital’s Diego Camacho Alvarez and Daniel Velandia commented on March’s reading:
“[March’s reading is] mostly explained by the calendar effect as this month had four fewer business days compared to Mar-23 and […] we estimate that one fewer business day subtracts 1.2-1.5pp to economic growth in a particular month. In fact, this effect is set to reverse in Apr-24.”