Argentina: Inflation drops to lowest level since July 2023 in December
Inflation drops to lowest level since July 2023 in December
Latest reading:
Latest reading: Inflation dropped to 117.8% in December, below November’s 166.0% and the weakest inflation rate since July 2023. Prices rose at a softer pace across a broad range of subsectors.
Annual average inflation fell to 219.9% in December (November: 236.4%).
Finally, consumer prices increased 2.70% in December over the previous month, picking up from the 2.43% rise recorded in November. Both the year-on-year and month-on-month variation in prices were in line with market expectations.
Inflation dropped to 117.8% in December, below November’s 166.0% and the weakest inflation rate since July 2023. Prices rose at a softer pace across a broad range of subsectors.
Annual average inflation fell to 219.9% in December (November: 236.4%).
Finally, consumer prices increased 2.70% in December over the previous month, picking up from the 2.43% rise recorded in November. Both the year-on-year and month-on-month variation in prices were in line with market expectations.
Panelist insight:
Panelist insight: On the outlook, Itaú Unibanco analysts said:
“We expect the disinflation process to continue in 2025. We now see inflation at 25% in YE25, down from 30% in our previous scenario and well below the 117.8% yoy inflation in YE24. Our baseline scenario assumes that the central bank will also cut the policy rate (by 300 bps to 29%) after announcing the reduction of the crawling peg.”
BBVA analysts said:
“We have revised our 2025 inflation forecast to 30% (previously, 35%), reflecting recent outcomes and the decline in the exchange rate monthly depreciation from 2% to 1%.”
On the outlook, Itaú Unibanco analysts said:
“We expect the disinflation process to continue in 2025. We now see inflation at 25% in YE25, down from 30% in our previous scenario and well below the 117.8% yoy inflation in YE24. Our baseline scenario assumes that the central bank will also cut the policy rate (by 300 bps to 29%) after announcing the reduction of the crawling peg.”
BBVA analysts said:
“We have revised our 2025 inflation forecast to 30% (previously, 35%), reflecting recent outcomes and the decline in the exchange rate monthly depreciation from 2% to 1%.”