Kazakhstan: Economy gains momentum in Q3
Growth improves: A second national accounts release confirmed that the Kazakh economy gained steam in Q3, as annual GDP growth rose to 4.1% in January–September from January–June’s 3.2% expansion. That said, the reading fell short of the 4.9% increase recorded in January–September 2023.
Stronger domestic demand fuels upturn: Domestically, private spending remained at the helm of the upturn. Household consumption accelerated to 6.7% in January–September from H1’s 5.6% expansion, likely buoyed by faster real wage growth in Q3 than in H1. Moreover, fixed investment returned to growth in Q3, rising 2.2% in January–September (H2: -0.4% yoy). Meanwhile, government consumption slid at a softer pace of 1.2% in January–September (H2: -5.2% yoy).
On the external front, exports of goods and services slowed to a halt in January–September after increasing 1.2% in H1. Conversely, imports of goods and services declined at a more moderate rate of 1.3% in the same nine-month period (H2: -3.4% yoy).
Economy to strengthen ahead: Our panelists expect the economy to have gained traction at the tail end of 2024, and have penciled in a further acceleration for Q1 2025. The economy should then expand at a similar rate to Q1 2025 through Q4 2025; as a result, our Consensus is for GDP growth to outpace 2024 levels this year. This will come on the back of both domestic and external demand strengthening. Sanctions are a downside risk, while the health of the Chinese, EU and U.S. economies is a two-sided risk.