Angola Commodities September 2019

Angola: Cabinda crude oil price rises in September

The average price of Angola’s Cabinda crude rose from USD 60.7 per barrel (pb) in August to USD 64.6 pb in September. September’s price was 6.4% above the average price observed in the previous month but was still 18.7% lower in year-on-year terms.

Global oil prices were volatile in September. News that China and the U.S. were resuming trade talks put upward pressure on prices at the beginning of the month. This was followed by an attack on Saudi Arabian oil facilities on 14 September which marked the worst sudden disruption to supply in history and sent prices soaring. Later in the month, however, prices dropped again as Saudi Arabia restored output capacity and lackluster economic data in key economies weighed on the market, raising concerns over slowing global crude demand.

Oil production in Angola decreased to 1.38 million barrels per day in (mbpd) in September from 1.43 mbpd in August. Meanwhile, according to the latest OPEC report published on 10 October, crude oil production among OPEC countries edged down to 28.49 mbpd in September from 29.81 mbpd in August.

Looking ahead, the outlook for oil prices remains somewhat uncertain. While continued geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, sustained OPEC+ production cuts and a potential resolution to the China-U.S. trade tensions should fuel price pressures, risks are tilted to the downside due to waning global growth prospects.

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