Angola Commodities May 2019

Angola: Cabinda crude oil price growth halts; Angolan production remains at over 12-year low in May

The average price of Angola’s Cabinda crude oil ticked up from USD 72.2 per barrel (pb) in April to USD 72.4 pb in May. May’s price was just 0.3% above the average price observed in the previous month and 5.5% lower in year-on-year terms. Notably, global oil prices slumped at the end of May, with Cabinda crude oil price closing the month at USD 68.1 pb.

Global oil prices trended upwards for the better part of May, on Washington’s reimplementation of sanctions against Tehran, OPEC’s strict oil production cuts, as well as from supply concerns in Libya, Nigeria and Venezuela. Nevertheless, increasing concerns about the health of global growth amid slowing economic activity in China, surging oil production in the U.S. and escalating trade tensions pushed prices down at the end of May. Notably, the ongoing trade conflict between China and the United States, coupled with the prospect of new trade wars waged by the U.S. against Australia, the EU and Mexico, weighed on global sentiment and the demand outlook for the black gold.

Oil production in Angola remained unchanged from the previous month at 1.43 million barrels per day (mbpd) in May, the lowest level since November 2006. Meanwhile, according to the latest OPEC report published on 13 June, crude oil production among OPEC countries moderated from 30.11 mbpd in April to 29.88 mbpd in May.

Looking forward, the outlook for oil prices somewhat remains uncertain, although prices are seen rising slightly towards the end of this year on tighter global supply thanks to the oil cut deal by OPEC+ and supply concerns in Iran, Libya, Nigeria and Venezuela as well as hopes that global demand stays resilient. That said, prices will remain volatile with respect to global economic and geopolitical developments.

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