Commodities make the world go round. Their presence underpins all aspects of the modern global economy, from the cars we drive to the food we buy and the electricity we summon with the press of a button. But which commodities are the most important, and what is the outlook for commodity prices in 2025 according to our Consensus forecast? In this article we provide the answer. The top ten list below is based on trade value data from the Observatory of Economic Complexity (OEC).
The Most Traded Commodity in the World
Crude Oil
Crude oil is the lifeblood of the global economy, powering transportation, heating, and electricity generation while serving as a raw material for countless industrial and consumer products. The world’s top producers include the Russia, Saudi Arabia and the U.S., each contributing roughly 10–15% of global supply. OPEC—particularly Saudi Arabia—wields significant influence over oil markets through coordinated production cuts. That said, this influence has waned in recent years due to the rise of the U.S.—which is not part of OPEC—as a top crude supplier. The United States and China are the largest consumers of oil, though demand is increasing fastest in emerging economies like India. The rise of electric vehicles and renewable energy poses long-term challenges to crude oil demand, but in the near term, global consumption is set to remain strong, especially in the aviation and petrochemical sectors. On the supply side, growth is constrained by geopolitical instability in key oil-producing regions, underinvestment in new exploration projects, and tightening environmental regulations. That said, oil output will get a boost this year from the unwinding of OPEC+ cuts and higher output from the Permian Basin in the U.S. Our analysts’ Brent crude price forecast for 2025 is lower than last at around USD 75 per barrel, largely due to the aforementioned rise in supply.
Remaining Top 5 Largest Traded Commodities
Natural Gas
Natural gas is a crucial energy source for power generation, heating and industrial processes, with increasing use as a cleaner alternative to coal. Iran, Russia and the U.S. are by far the largest producers, with the latter—along with Qatar—also the main exporter of liquefied natural gas (LNG). The gas market is increasingly shaped by geopolitical factors, such as Russia’s war in Ukraine; the conflict has led the EU to shift away from importing Russian pipeline gas and toward LNG imports, particularly from the U.S. Demand for natural gas should continue to grow going forward as developing economies industrialize and increasingly turn to the fuel as a cleaner alternative to oil or coal. However, competition from renewables and energy efficiency improvements will still limit the upside potential for demand. Looking at prices, our panelists’ 2025 natural gas price forecast is higher across all key markets—in Asia, the EU and the U.S.— compared to the 2024 average.
Gold
Gold serves as both a financial asset and an industrial commodity, prized for its rarity, durability and conductivity. It is used in jewelry, electronics, and as a store of value in central bank reserves and investment portfolios. The largest gold-producing countries are Australia, China and Russia, while China and India dominate global demand due to their massive jewelry markets. Central banks, particularly in emerging markets, have been increasing their gold reserves in recent years as a hedge against inflation and geopolitical instability. Investment demand tends to rise in times of economic uncertainty, with short-term gold price movements also highly sensitive to interest rates and fluctuations in exchange rates—especially in the U.S. Long-term demand prospects are solid, buttressed by central bank purchases and increased industrial usage. In contrast, mined supply faces constraints due to declining ore grades and stricter environmental regulations. As a result, recycling of gold from electronic waste is expected to become a more significant supply source in the future. Gold prices have surged since the Covid-19 pandemic due to increasing global uncertainty and as a hedge against high inflation, approaching USD 3,000 per troy ounce in early 2025. While our gold price forecast is for prices to pull back slightly in the coming quarters, they will remain at some of the highest levels ever recorded.
Coal
Coal remains a dominant energy source, particularly in electricity generation and steelmaking, despite growing environmental concerns. China, India and Indonesia are the top producers, with China also being the largest consumer, accounting for over half of global coal demand. India is emerging as another key market; rapid industrialization has caused Indian demand to roughly triple since the turn of the millennium. In contrast, developed economies in Europe and North America are increasingly phasing out coal due to climate commitments and the expansion of renewable energy sources. The International Energy Agency expects global coal demand to roughly plateau over the next few years, as lower developed-market demand and a leveling-off of Chinese consumption outweigh higher usage in other emerging markets. In particular, China’s booming solar and wind sectors plus slower economic growth will cap its appetite for coal. This feeds through to a softer coal price forecast in 2025 compared to 2024, with prices to continue declining in subsequent years.
Iron Ore
Iron ore is the most trade base metal: As the backbone of the steel industry, iron ore is crucial for construction, infrastructure and manufacturing. Australia and Brazil dominate global iron ore production, supplying close to 80% of the world’s exports, while China is by far the largest consumer; the Asian giant’s construction and infrastructure sectors heavily rely on steel production. China’s demand is thus a key driver of iron ore prices. India and Southeast Asia are also seeing growing demand as urbanization accelerates. In 2025, global steel demand is set to edge up only slightly, weighed on by a sluggish Chinese property market. In contrast, the supply of iron ore should rise ahead as top producers Australia and Brazil hike exports and African countries bring online new supplies. The interplay of these supply and demand factors means that our 2025 iron ore price forecast is lower than the 2024 average.
Other Commodities in the Top 10
Copper
Copper is of immense importance to the global economy, and its presence is pervasive in all areas: The electricity grid, railway lines, cars, electronic devices, and wind and solar power all use the metal. Chile is the top world producer, with slightly over 20% of global mined output, followed by Peru, the DRC and China. The substantial share of output coming from Latin America and Africa makes the metal vulnerable to social unrest and extreme weather events. In contrast, China is by far the leading refiner of copper. Regarding consumption, China is the main buyer—as is the case with virtually all base metals—accounting for over half of total world demand. Long-term demand prospects for the metal are bright, as copper is a crucial component of virtually all elements of the green energy transition. On the supply side, mined output is likely to increase moderately in the coming years. As a result of these demand and supply factors, our copper price forecast for this year is elevated by historical standards. That said, Donald Trump’s decision to unwind support for green energy in the U.S. could cap demand and therefore prices.
Soybeans
Soybeans are a key global agricultural product, used for animal feed, vegetable oil production, and biofuels. Argentina, Brazil and the United States dominate production, while China is by far the largest importer; soybeans are used to feed the Asian nation’s vast livestock industry. As such, global soybean demand is heavily influenced by shifts in China’s meat consumption, as well as by weather conditions affecting harvests in supplying countries, and trade policies. Regarding the latter, China temporarily imposed tariffs on U.S. soybeans in 2018 in retaliation to U.S. tariffs, causing U.S. soybean exports to China to collapse until the two countries reached a trade truce. On the supply side, climate change poses risks to future production, with droughts and extreme weather increasingly impacting yields in the Americas. For now, our soybean price forecast is for a lower average price in 2025 vs 2024 and to be at the lowest level since 2020, dampened by a record soybean harvest in Brazil and softer economic growth in China. That said, solid demand for plant-based proteins and biofuels should provide support. Renewed Chinese tariffs on U.S. soybeans pose a downside risk to prices.
Aluminum
Aluminum is widely used across industries, from aerospace and automotive manufacturing to construction and packaging. The metal is also crucial for the green energy transition, as it is used in solar panels, electric vehicles and power lines. China is the dominant consumer and producer, refining more than half of the world’s aluminum, while Australia and Guinea supply much of the raw bauxite needed for production. Volatile energy costs are a concern for the industry, as aluminum smelting is extremely energy-intensive; the smelting industry’s carbon footprint is an additional concern. Regarding the latter, hydrogen has been touted as a potential alternative to natural gas in the aluminum production process. This year, our average aluminum price forecast is at an over decade high, underpinned by strong demand from the green transition plus a supply shortage—world production will likely be hit by China’s recent decision to terminate tax rebates on exports of semi-manufactured aluminum products. The pace of the green transition is the key factor to watch.
Wheat
Wheat is a staple crop, integral to diets worldwide and a key component in various food products. The largest producers are China, India, and Russia, with the latter also being the world’s top exporter. Other major exporters include Australia, Canada and the U.S. A rising world population and urbanization have buoyed wheat demand in recent years and should continue to do so going forward, particularly in Africa and Southeast Asia. That said, supply is vulnerable to climate-related disruptions, as droughts and heatwaves increasingly impact yields in key growing regions. Conflict is another risk. For instance, prices spiked in 2022 as the Russia-Ukraine conflict disrupted global wheat trade, before gradually normalizing as Ukrainian wheat found new routes to market. Our panelists’ wheat price forecast is that prices will be broadly steady this year from 2024: Lower U.S. yields plus Russia’s weaker harvest and export restrictions should offset recovering output in the EU and Ukraine.
Platinum
Platinum is a rare and valuable metal used primarily in jewelry, industrial applications, and catalytic converters for controlling vehicle emissions. South Africa dominates global production, accounting for nearly 70% of supply, with Russia and Zimbabwe also playing key roles. Despite the global shift to battery electric vehicles—which do not use platinum—automotive demand has been propped up in recent years by substitution for platinum’s more expensive sister metal palladium, plus stronger sales of hybrid vehicles. Looking ahead, our panelists’ platinum price forecast is for prices drifting up this year from last and continuing to trend up in subsequent years. Platinum’s role in green hydrogen production will likely be a driver, as will higher emerging-market jewelry demand. That said, automotive demand will tail off going forward as palladium substitution runs its course and the transition to electric vehicles continues. Labor strikes and power shortages in South Africa are the key risk to supply.
Commodities Market Trends for 2025
This year, the Consensus among our panelists is for the prices of most commodity groups to be roughly stable or decline slightly vs 2024. Precious metals will be the exception, as elevated global economic uncertainty is likely to keep investor demand high. Global interest rates, Chinese tariffs on U.S. agricultural goods, Western restrictions on Russian precious metal and energy exports, export bans in developing nations, extreme weather events and OPEC+ oil quota decisions are all key factors to watch.
Originally published in January 2025