ASEAN Economic Outlook
Following the outbreak of the Iran war, the outlook for ASEAN GDP growth has deteriorated. The region should grow the least in three years in 2026 as private spending and fixed investment take a hit from higher global commodity prices and trade disruptions. Still, the ongoing AI boom should support demand for semiconductors—a key export from several ASEAN members.
ASEAN Inflation
Energy price spikes amid the Iran war pushed ASEAN inflation to a 22-month high in March and likely fueled it further in April. Our panelists continued to raise their 2026 inflation forecasts for the region; ASEAN inflation is seen at a three-year high and above its past-decade average. An El Niño weather event this year is likely to further stoke food costs.
This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for ASEAN from 2010 to 2025.
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 5,088 | 5,460 | 5,592 | 5,811 | 6,123 |
| International Reserves (USD bn) | 1,167 | 952 | 1,047 | 1,102 | 1,193 |
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | 3.9 | 5.7 | 4.0 | 5.0 | 4.8 |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 60.6 | 63.0 | 64.5 | 65.5 | 66.5 |
| Private Consumption (ann. var. %) | 2.8 | 7.3 | 4.8 | 5.1 | 4.7 |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 2.1 | 5.0 | 4.1 | 2.8 | 2.0 |
| Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 1,552 | 1,783 | 1,640 | 1,775 | 1,989 |
| Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 1,773 | 2,045 | 1,903 | 2,028 | 2,267 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | 2.69 | 4.55 | 4.95 | 4.85 | 3.95 |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 90.8 | 84.3 | 86.7 | 88.5 | 88.3 |
| Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) | 222 | 262 | 263 | 253 | 278 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -4.2 | -2.7 | -2.6 | -2.7 | -2.8 |
| Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | 2.0 | 2.2 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 3.3 |
| Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) | 6.3 | 4.6 | 3.5 | 5.4 | 5.6 |
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | 6.0 | 5.6 | -0.5 | 4.1 | 5.1 |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 4.8 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 3.3 | 3.2 |