ASEAN Economic Outlook
In 2027, GDP growth should outpace both its past-decade average and the global aggregate. Capital outlays should be a bright spot as ASEAN economies invest in AI infrastructure, renewables and higher-value manufacturing, while the easing Iran energy crisis should cool inflation and aid private spending. A severe El Niño is a downside risk.
ASEAN Inflation
In September, ASEAN inflation was the highest since May 2023, and it likely remained elevated in October amid the Iran energy crisis and El Niño. These factors should also fuel regional price pressures in early 2027, given ASEAN’s reliance on Middle Eastern energy imports and exposure to agricultural shocks. Still, average inflation should ease from 2026 next year.
This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for ASEAN from 2010 to 2026.
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -4.2 | -2.7 | -2.6 | -2.7 | -2.5 |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 60.6 | 63.0 | 64.6 | 65.5 | 66.4 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | 2.69 | 4.55 | 4.95 | 4.85 | 3.95 |
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 5,088 | 5,460 | 5,592 | 5,811 | 6,126 |
| Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 1,552 | 1,783 | 1,633 | 1,764 | 1,978 |
| Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) | 222 | 262 | 270 | 264 | 288 |
| Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) | 6.3 | 4.6 | 3.5 | 5.4 | 5.6 |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 90.8 | 84.3 | 86.7 | 88.5 | 88.4 |
| Private Consumption (ann. var. %) | 2.8 | 7.3 | 4.8 | 5.1 | 4.7 |
| Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 1,773 | 2,045 | 1,903 | 2,027 | 2,266 |
| International Reserves (USD bn) | 1,167 | 952 | 1,047 | 1,102 | 1,194 |
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | 6.5 | 4.3 | 0.9 | 3.5 | 4.7 |
| Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | 2.0 | 2.2 | 3.0 | 3.4 | 3.7 |
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | 3.9 | 5.7 | 4.0 | 5.0 | 4.8 |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 2.1 | 5.0 | 4.1 | 2.8 | 2.0 |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 4.8 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 3.3 | 3.2 |