ASEAN Economic Outlook
ASEAN’s GDP growth should hover near the 10-year average in 2025. Economic activity will be aided by strong government spending, interest rate cuts by central banks, and export front-loading plus re-routing from China via ASEAN as firms look to dodge anticipated U.S. tariffs. However, the eventual imposition of higher U.S. levies from August will hit momentum in H2.
ASEAN Inflation
Regional inflation has averaged between 1 and 2 percent so far this year, weak by global standards but above the average for Asia as a whole, which is weighed down by absent price pressures in China. Inflation should pick up later in 2025 but remain mild by global standards, kept in check by strong inflows of cheap Chinese imports.
This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for ASEAN from 2020 to 2024.
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 1,214 | 1,551 | 1,784 | 1,632 | 1,782 |
| Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 1,431 | 1,775 | 2,044 | 1,891 | 2,009 |
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 4,680 | 5,096 | 5,464 | 5,595 | 5,782 |
| Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | 3.7 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 3.0 | 3.1 |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 1.2 | 2.1 | 5.0 | 4.1 | 2.8 |
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | -3.8 | 3.9 | 5.7 | 4.0 | 4.8 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -6.3 | -4.3 | -2.7 | -2.8 | -2.9 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | 2.79 | 2.69 | 4.55 | 4.95 | 4.86 |
| Investment (annual variation in %) | -8.7 | 6.3 | 5.0 | 3.5 | 5.0 |
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | -3.2 | 6.5 | 5.6 | -0.5 | 4.0 |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 5.2 | 4.8 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 3.3 |
| International Reserves (USD bn) | 1,077 | 1,167 | 952 | 1,047 | 1,101 |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 91.5 | 90.6 | 84.4 | 86.3 | 88.1 |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 58.4 | 60.6 | 63.2 | 64.8 | 66.3 |
| Private Consumption (annual variation in %) | -4.0 | 2.8 | 7.2 | 5.0 | 5.0 |