ASEAN Economic Outlook
Regional GDP growth is forecast to slow to a three-year low in 2026, as the Iran energy crisis dampens household spending and U.S. tariffs plus global shipping disruptions keep a lid on merchandise exports. More positively, resilient tourism and the global AI upcycle should support the services sector and manufacturing, respectively.
ASEAN Inflation
In June, regional inflation remained among the highest in recent years amid spillovers from the Iran war. In 2026 as a whole, ASEAN inflation should rise to a three-year high due to weaker regional currencies, energy cost spikes and the El Niño weather event hurting agricultural output. A stronger-than-expected El Niño poses an upside risk to regional inflation.
This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for ASEAN from 2010 to 2025.
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | 2.0 | 2.2 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 3.5 |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 60.6 | 63.0 | 64.6 | 65.4 | 66.4 |
| International Reserves (USD bn) | 1,167 | 952 | 1,047 | 1,102 | 1,194 |
| Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 1,773 | 2,045 | 1,903 | 2,028 | 2,266 |
| Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) | 222 | 262 | 263 | 253 | 279 |
| Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 1,552 | 1,783 | 1,640 | 1,775 | 1,987 |
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 5,088 | 5,460 | 5,592 | 5,811 | 6,126 |
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | 3.9 | 5.7 | 4.0 | 5.0 | 4.8 |
| Private Consumption (ann. var. %) | 2.8 | 7.3 | 4.8 | 5.1 | 4.7 |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 2.1 | 5.0 | 4.1 | 2.8 | 2.0 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | 2.69 | 4.55 | 4.95 | 4.85 | 3.95 |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 90.8 | 84.3 | 86.7 | 88.5 | 88.3 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -4.2 | -2.7 | -2.6 | -2.7 | -2.8 |
| Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) | 6.3 | 4.6 | 3.5 | 5.4 | 5.6 |
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | 6.0 | 5.6 | -0.5 | 4.1 | 5.1 |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 4.8 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 3.3 | 3.2 |