ASEAN Economic Outlook
GDP growth should be near 2026’s projected rate in 2027, notably above the global average. Investment should be a bright spot as ASEAN economies pivot towards AI infrastructure, renewables and higher-value manufacturing, while the fading impact of the Iran energy shock and unwinding monetary tightening should aid private spending. A severe El Niño is a downside risk.
ASEAN Inflation
In September, inflation rose in most ASEAN economies. Spillovers from the Iran war and El Niño will continue fanning regional inflation by end-2026 and into 2027, given the region’s reliance on energy imports from the Middle East and exposure to agricultural shocks. In 2027 as a whole, price pressures should ease from 2026 but outpace their prior-decade average.
This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for ASEAN from 2010 to 2026.
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 1,552 | 1,783 | 1,633 | 1,764 | 1,978 |
| Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 1,773 | 2,045 | 1,903 | 2,027 | 2,266 |
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | 6.4 | 4.3 | 1.0 | 3.6 | 5.0 |
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 5,088 | 5,460 | 5,592 | 5,811 | 6,126 |
| Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) | 6.3 | 4.6 | 3.5 | 5.4 | 5.6 |
| Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) | 222 | 262 | 270 | 264 | 288 |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 60.6 | 63.0 | 64.6 | 65.5 | 66.4 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -4.2 | -2.7 | -2.6 | -2.7 | -2.8 |
| Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | 2.0 | 2.2 | 3.0 | 3.4 | 3.7 |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 90.8 | 84.3 | 86.7 | 88.5 | 88.4 |
| International Reserves (USD bn) | 1,167 | 952 | 1,047 | 1,102 | 1,194 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | 2.69 | 4.55 | 4.95 | 4.85 | 3.95 |
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | 3.9 | 5.7 | 4.0 | 5.0 | 4.8 |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 2.1 | 5.0 | 4.1 | 2.8 | 2.0 |
| Private Consumption (ann. var. %) | 2.8 | 7.3 | 4.8 | 5.1 | 4.7 |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 4.8 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 3.3 | 3.2 |