Economic Growth in Argentina
Argentina's GDP growth from 2013-2022 was highly volatile, marked by economic recessions and brief recoveries. The economy faced significant contractions, particularly during periods of political uncertainty and fiscal imbalances. Inflation and currency devaluation further hampered growth, with a notable recession in 2018-2019. Despite some recovery attempts, the COVID-19 pandemic exacerbated the economic downturn. By 2022, Argentina was grappling with a stagnant economy, high inflation, and a challenging debt burden, reflecting deep-rooted structural issues and economic mismanagement.
In Argentina, the economy recorded an average growth rate of 0.4% in the decade to 2022, below the 1.3% average for Latin America. In 2022, real GDP growth was 5.0%. For more GDP information, visit our dedicated page.
Argentina GDP Chart
Argentina GDP Data
2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) | -2.6 | -2.0 | -9.9 | 10.7 | 5.0 |
GDP (USD bn) | 525 | 447 | 385 | 487 | 630 |
GDP (ARS bn) | 14,745 | 21,558 | 27,210 | 46,346 | 82,436 |
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) | 38.3 | 46.2 | 26.2 | 70.3 | 77.9 |
Activity declines at a more moderate rate in Q3
GDP slid at a softer rate of 0.8% year on year in the third quarter, above the 5.0% contraction logged in the second quarter. On a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis, GDP bounced back, increasing 2.7% in Q3, contrasting the previous period's 2.7% decrease. Q3's reading marked the best result since Q1 2021.
Private consumption growth fell to an over two-year low of 0.3% in the third quarter (Q2: +0.7% yoy), as runaway inflation and downbeat sentiment weighed on spending. Meanwhile, government consumption growth expanded 1.8% (Q2: +3.3% yoy). That said, fixed investment rebounded, growing 0.8% in Q3, contrasting the 1.6% contraction recorded in the previous quarter, partially thanks to a less challenging base of comparison. On the external front, exports of goods and services fell 4.8% on an annual basis in the third quarter, still affected by a severe drought, following the second quarter's 11.2% contraction. Conversely, imports of goods and services growth slowed to 2.6% in Q3 (Q2: +3.1% yoy).
GDP likely continued to contract in Q4, hit by hyperinflation, capital controls, a collapsing peso and skyrocketing interest rates. That said, significant uncertainty surrounds next year’s economic performance due to the wide-ranging reform program advocated by President Milei. The lagged effects of hyperinflation will restrain consumption, but rising exports should cushion the downturn. A shift towards more market-friendly policies is an upside risk in the medium term, but social unrest could delay reforms.
Commenting on the outlook, Itaú Unibanco’s Andrés Pérez and Diego Ciongo stated: “As a result of better-than-anticipated activity data in 3Q23, our 2023 GDP growth forecast of -3.0% now has an upward bias, that is pointing to a smaller annual contraction in 2023. The contraction in economic activity is likely to continue in 2024 with a decline of 2.5%, despite favorable drought-related base effects, as the ambitious stabilization plan addresses Argentina’s severe macro-financial imbalances.”
How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Argentine GDP projections for the next ten years from a panel of 57 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable GDP forecast available for Argentine GDP.
Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Argentine GDP projections.
Want to get access to the full dataset of Argentine GDP forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.
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