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Argentina Economic Activity January 2024

Argentina: Decline in economic activity softens in January

The monthly indicator for economic activity (EMAE) slid 4.3% in year-on-year terms in January, which was a smaller contraction than December’s 4.5% decrease. The figure was largely due to an improvement in the agriculture sector. Meanwhile, the manufacturing sector fell at a softer rate. Lastly, activity in the hotels and restaurants sector decreased at a sharper rate, while transport and communications production contracted at a steeper pace than in December.

On a monthly basis, economic activity fell 1.2% in January, moderating from December’s 2.8% fall. Meanwhile, the trend pointed down, with the annual average variation of economic activity coming in at minus 2.1%, down from December’s minus 1.5%.

Commenting on the outlook, Itaú Unibanco’s Andrés Pérez and Diego Ciongo stated:

“We maintain our GDP growth forecast of -3.0% for 2024, affected by the expected drop in real wages and the sharp fiscal consolidation plan, but partially offset by the normalization of the agricultural sector after the severe drought in 2023.”

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