Vietnam Economic Forecast

Vietnam Economic Outlook

April 26, 2022

Following Q4’s strong rebound, GDP growth in Q1 of 2022 slowed slightly. The industrial sector grew thanks to healthy gains in manufacturing and despite rising fuel, transport and input material prices and a labor shortage induced by the most recent Covid-19 wave. Moreover, the lifting of pandemic-related restrictions supported services activity. The retail sector performed better in Q1 than in Q4 2021, with travel-related sales reaching positive levels for the first time in two years—a trend likely to continue as travel restrictions further loosen. Moving into the current quarter, Covid-19 cases continue to fall, which, together with the economy’s progressive reopening and a high vaccination rate, should aid momentum. Recently, the IMF concluded its Article IV mission and expressed a strong growth outlook, while calling for reforms targeting the labor force and governance.

Vietnam Economic Growth

GDP is projected to grow notably faster this year compared to 2021 thanks to higher growth in consumer and capital spending. A robust external sector and the recently approved Program for Recovery and Development should also boost activity. Still, new Covid-19 outbreaks, rising oil and gas prices, and monetary policy tightening among major trading partners cloud the outlook. Our panelists expect GDP to expand 6.6% in 2022, which is down 0.3 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 6.9% in 2023.

Vietnam Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)91.792.793.694.695.5
GDP per capita (USD)2,0852,1722,3532,5452,722
GDP (USD bn)191201220241260
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)6.76.26.87.17.0
Consumption (annual variation in %)9.37.37.47.3-  
Investment (annual variation in %)9.49.910.28.6-  
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)9.87.59.410.29.1
Unemployment Rate2.32.32.22.22.2
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-6.1-3.7-1.2-3.5-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)61.063.761.458.4-  
Money (annual variation in %)16.218.415.012.4-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)0.64.72.63.55.2
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)0.62.73.53.62.8
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-0.6-0.62.83.11.3
Policy Interest Rate (%)6.506.506.256.256.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)22,48522,77122,71023,19523,173
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)21,92922,37022,71623,02523,228
Current Account (% of GDP)-1.10.3-0.72.5-  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-2.00.6-1.65.9-  
Trade Balance (USD billion)7.411.010.816.545.4
Exports (USD billion)162177215244226
Imports (USD billion)155166204227181
Exports (annual variation in %)7.99.021.813.3-7.3
Imports (annual variation in %)12.07.023.411.2-20.5
International Reserves (USD)28.336.549.155.578.3
External Debt (% of GDP)40.742.647.244.9-  

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Vietnam Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield3.38-0.13 %Dec 31
Exchange Rate23,1730.01 %Jan 01

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