Vietnam Economic Forecast

Vietnam Economic Outlook

November 16, 2021

After the economy slumped into contraction in Q3—with GDP shrinking at the fastest rate since records began in 2000—conditions appear to be improving in Q4. A solid rebound looks likely, with the manufacturing PMI returning to expansionary territory in October on renewed increases in output and new orders, and industrial production declining at a more moderate rate than in Q3. However, lingering issues from the recent outbreak of the virus remain: While authorities gradually reduced restrictions in October and vaccination efforts have quickened markedly in recent weeks, daily Covid-19 cases have been steadily rising once again so far in November. This prompted authorities to extend current restrictions until January, which could weigh on activity heading into the final stretch of the year and into 2022.

Vietnam Economic Growth

GDP is set to grow at the fastest rate in the region in 2022, following this year’s projected solid expansion. An acceleration in consumer and capital spending, combined with a robust external sector, should boost growth next year. However, the threat of further outbreaks and the risk of tougher restrictions being reimposed cloud the outlook. Our panelists expect GDP to expand 7.2% in 2022, which is up 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 6.8% in 2023.

Vietnam Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)91.792.793.694.695.5
GDP per capita (USD)2,0852,1722,3532,5452,722
GDP (USD bn)191201220241260
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)6.76.26.87.17.0
Consumption (annual variation in %)9.37.37.47.3-  
Investment (annual variation in %)9.49.910.28.6-  
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)9.87.59.410.29.1
Unemployment Rate2.32.32.22.22.2
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-6.1-3.7-1.2-3.5-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)61.063.761.458.4-  
Money (annual variation in %)16.218.415.012.4-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)0.64.72.63.55.2
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)0.62.73.53.62.8
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-0.6-0.62.83.11.3
Policy Interest Rate (%)6.506.506.256.256.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)22,48522,77122,71023,19523,173
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)21,92922,37022,71623,02523,228
Current Account (% of GDP)-1.10.3-0.72.5-  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-2.00.6-1.65.9-  
Trade Balance (USD billion)7.411.010.816.545.4
Exports (USD billion)162177215244226
Imports (USD billion)155166204227181
Exports (annual variation in %)7.99.021.813.3-7.3
Imports (annual variation in %)12.07.023.411.2-20.5
International Reserves (USD)28.336.549.155.578.3
External Debt (% of GDP)40.742.647.244.9-  

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Vietnam Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield3.38-0.13 %Dec 31
Exchange Rate23,1730.01 %Jan 01

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