Ukraine GDP Q2 2021


Ukraine: Economy records fastest upturn since Q3 2011 in the second quarter on low base effect

September 21, 2021

A second national accounts release confirmed that the economy bounced back in the second quarter, expanding 5.4% year-on-year and contrasting the 2.2% contraction logged in the first quarter. Q2's reading marked the best result since Q3 2011 and the first expansion after five consecutive contractions.

The upturn reflected improvements in private consumption and fixed investment compared to the previous period. Household spending growth picked up to 17.4% year-on-year in the second quarter, which marked the best reading since Q4 2011 (Q1: +4.4% yoy), while fixed investment rebounded, growing 14.8% and contrasting the 7.8% drop recorded in the previous quarter. However, public spending growth edged down to 2.9% in Q2 (Q1: +3.2% yoy).

Meanwhile, exports of goods and services fell 6.2% on an annual basis in the second quarter, improving from the first quarter's 17.4% contraction. Meanwhile, growth in imports of goods and services picked up to 21.5% in Q2 (Q1: +3.7% yoy). As such, the external sector subtracted 14 percentage points from the overall reading—the largest amount since our records began.

Lastly, on a seasonally-adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis, GDP fell 0.8% in Q2, improving from the previous quarter's 1.2% decrease.

FocusEconomics Consensus panelists project GDP to expand 3.9% in 2021, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 3.9% in 2022.


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Ukraine GDP Chart

Ukraine GDP Q2  2021 0

Note: Year-on-year variation of GDP in %.
Source: State Statistics Service of Ukraine and FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.

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