Philippines Economic Forecast

Philippines Economic Outlook

April 26, 2022

Available data suggests that growth will have slowed in Q1 2022 amid a tougher base effect and softer underlying activity. Private spending was likely hit by rising inflation and an Omicron-induced spike in Covid-19 cases at the outset of the quarter, while uncertainty related to the upcoming May elections seemingly hampered investment. Trade figures are likely to show a wider deficit in March following the acceleration of oil prices that month, after the trade deficit surprisingly narrowed in January–February. Some support to growth will come from the easing of Covid-19 restrictions in the final stretch of Q1, which contributed to the manufacturing PMI rising in February–March. Heading into Q2, all eyes are on the presidential elections. Large policy shifts are unlikely but investor uncertainty and the pre-election spending ban look set to hit expenditure regardless of who wins.

Philippines Economic Growth

GDP growth will be higher this year than in 2021, reaching the second-highest pace in ASEAN. Support will come from eased Covid-19 restrictions, expansionary fiscal and monetary stances, and the government’s “Build, Build, Build” infrastructure program. Risks include fiscal and external imbalances, fiscal decentralization reforms and the upcoming presidential elections. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists project GDP to increase 6.5% in 2022, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s estimate. For 2023, they forecast economic growth of 6.2%.

Philippines Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)102103105107108
GDP per capita (USD)3,0153,0863,1313,2533,480
GDP (USD bn)306319329347377
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)6.37.16.96.36.0
Consumption (annual variation in %)6.47.26.05.85.9
Investment (annual variation in %)13.820.910.612.93.9
Manufacturing (annual variation in %)5.26.88.05.13.2
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)-57.310249.012.4-  
Unemployment Rate6.35.55.75.35.1
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-0.9-2.3-2.1-3.1-3.4
Public Debt (% of GDP)42.740.240.239.939.6
Money (annual variation in %)9.113.311.68.610.9
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)0.72.22.95.12.5
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)0.71.32.95.22.5
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-6.7-4.8-0.90.71.6
Policy Interest Rate (%)4.003.003.004.754.00
Stock Market (annual variation in %)-3.9-1.625.1-12.84.7
Exchange Rate (vs USD)46.9349.6050.0152.5050.66
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)45.5347.5050.4052.6751.78
Current Account (% of GDP)2.4-0.4-0.7-2.5-0.1
Current Account Balance (USD bn)7.3-1.2-2.1-8.8-0.5
Trade Balance (USD billion)-12.2-26.7-27.4-43.5-40.7
Exports (USD billion)58.857.468.769.370.9
Imports (USD billion)71.184.196.1113112
Exports (annual variation in %)-5.3-2.419.70.92.3
Imports (annual variation in %)8.718.414.217.4-1.1
International Reserves (USD)80.780.781.679.287.8
External Debt (% of GDP)25.323.522.322.822.2

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Philippines Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield4.44-4.11 %Dec 27
Exchange Rate50.660.02 %Jan 01

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