Philippines Economic Forecast

Philippines Economic Outlook

November 16, 2021

GDP growth slowed in year-on-year terms in Q3, but nonetheless beat market expectations. Moreover, robust quarter-on-quarter growth points to strengthening underlying dynamics. The annual figure was mostly driven by a surge in private consumption, likely aided by more limited restrictions from September amid a gradual fall in Covid-19 cases, which followed a strict lockdown of the capital in August. Government consumption, fixed investment and an improved trade balance also contributed to growth. Heading into Q4, the manufacturing PMI rose in October. Moreover, there has been a further relaxation of Covid-19 curbs in the capital since the start of the quarter, which, together with the Central Bank’s still-dovish stance, bodes well for momentum. However, a low nationwide vaccination rate leaves the country vulnerable to a further wave of the virus.

Philippines Economic Growth

Growth should accelerate next year, as the country’s stalling vaccination efforts likely finally pick up speed, permitting a relaxation of restrictions and greater certainty for consumers and investors. Key risks to the outlook include further virus mutations and the outcome of next year’s election, with President Duterte unable to stand. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists project GDP to increase 6.8% in 2022, which is unchanged from last month’s estimate. For 2023, they forecast economic growth of 6.7%.

Philippines Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)102103105107108
GDP per capita (USD)3,0153,0863,1313,2533,480
GDP (USD bn)306319329347377
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)6.37.16.96.36.0
Consumption (annual variation in %)6.47.26.05.85.9
Investment (annual variation in %)13.820.910.612.93.9
Manufacturing (annual variation in %)5.26.88.05.13.2
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)-57.310249.012.4-  
Unemployment Rate6.35.55.75.35.1
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-0.9-2.3-2.1-3.1-3.4
Public Debt (% of GDP)42.740.240.239.939.6
Money (annual variation in %)9.113.311.68.610.9
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)0.72.22.95.12.5
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)0.71.32.95.22.5
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-6.7-4.8-0.90.71.6
Policy Interest Rate (%)4.003.003.004.754.00
Stock Market (annual variation in %)-3.9-1.625.1-12.84.7
Exchange Rate (vs USD)46.9349.6050.0152.5050.66
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)45.5347.5050.4052.6751.78
Current Account (% of GDP)2.4-0.4-0.7-2.5-0.1
Current Account Balance (USD bn)7.3-1.2-2.1-8.8-0.5
Trade Balance (USD billion)-12.2-26.7-27.4-43.5-40.7
Exports (USD billion)58.857.468.769.370.9
Imports (USD billion)71.184.196.1113112
Exports (annual variation in %)-5.3-2.419.70.92.3
Imports (annual variation in %)8.718.414.217.4-1.1
International Reserves (USD)80.780.781.679.287.8
External Debt (% of GDP)25.323.522.322.822.2

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Philippines Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield4.44-4.11 %Dec 27
Exchange Rate50.660.02 %Jan 01

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