Philippines Economic Outlook
November 16, 2021GDP growth slowed in year-on-year terms in Q3, but nonetheless beat market expectations. Moreover, robust quarter-on-quarter growth points to strengthening underlying dynamics. The annual figure was mostly driven by a surge in private consumption, likely aided by more limited restrictions from September amid a gradual fall in Covid-19 cases, which followed a strict lockdown of the capital in August. Government consumption, fixed investment and an improved trade balance also contributed to growth. Heading into Q4, the manufacturing PMI rose in October. Moreover, there has been a further relaxation of Covid-19 curbs in the capital since the start of the quarter, which, together with the Central Bank’s still-dovish stance, bodes well for momentum. However, a low nationwide vaccination rate leaves the country vulnerable to a further wave of the virus.
Philippines Economic GrowthGrowth should accelerate next year, as the country’s stalling vaccination efforts likely finally pick up speed, permitting a relaxation of restrictions and greater certainty for consumers and investors. Key risks to the outlook include further virus mutations and the outcome of next year’s election, with President Duterte unable to stand. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists project GDP to increase 6.8% in 2022, which is unchanged from last month’s estimate. For 2023, they forecast economic growth of 6.7%.
Philippines Economy Data
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Philippines Economic News
November 17, 2021
At its monetary policy meeting on 17 November, the Central Bank of the Philippines maintained the overnight reverse repurchase facility rate at its record low of 2.00%, marking the eighth successive hold and matching market analysts’ expectations.
November 9, 2021
According to a preliminary reading, GDP growth lost momentum in the third quarter, falling to 7.1% year-on-year from 12.0% in the second quarter, as surging Covid-19 infection rates prompted the introduction of restrictions.
November 5, 2021
Merchandise exports rose 6.3% on an annual basis in September, on the heels of August’s 18.9% upturn.
November 5, 2021
Consumer prices rose a seasonally-adjusted 0.15% from the previous month in October, accelerating from the 0.08% increase logged in September.
November 2, 2021
The IHS Markit Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 51.0 in October from September's 50.9.