Economic growth stabilizes in Q4

GDP growth remains at over one-year low: Annual GDP growth was stable at Q3’s 5.2% in Q4, marking the joint-slowest expansion since Q2 2023 and falling short of market expectations, as several typhoons battered the economy. On a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis, economic growth accelerated moderately to 1.8% in Q4 from the previous quarter's 1.5%, marking the strongest expansion since Q4 2023. In 2024 as a whole, the Philippine economy grew 5.6% year on year, ticking up from 2023’s 5.5% rise.

Private spending, fixed investment and net exports weigh on growth: Domestically, growth in household spending slowed to 4.7% in Q4 (Q3: +5.2% yoy). Additionally, fixed investment growth eased to 4.8% in Q4, marking the worst result since Q1 2024 (Q3: +7.6% yoy). More positively, public spending picked up to a 9.7% expansion in Q4 (Q3: +5.0% yoy). On the external front, net trade detracted from overall GDP growth for the third consecutive quarter. Exports of goods and services increased 3.2% on an annual basis in the fourth quarter, which contrasted the third quarter's 1.4% contraction. Conversely, imports of goods and services growth slowed to 3.2% in Q4 (Q3: +6.4% yoy).

Momentum to pick up in 2025: Our panelists expect the economy to shift into a higher gear in 2025. Looser monetary policy will fuel accelerations in private spending and fixed investment, while export frontloading ahead of higher U.S. tariffs will boost the external sector. A larger public budget, infrastructure projects and cash handouts ahead of the May 2025 midterm elections will also provide tailwinds to the economy. However, uncertainty regarding U.S. tariffs on the Philippines and its key trade partners poses a major downside risk to the outlook.

Panelist insight: EIU analysts commented on the outlook: “We forecast that real GDP will grow by 6.3% in 2025, accelerating from 5.6% in 2024. Exports of goods and services will maintain positive momentum in 2025, underpinned by still-resilient global electronics demand. However, potential implementation of strict tariffs by the Trump administration in the US will weigh on the Philippines' export growth in late 2025. Domestic household consumption growth will improve as a result of falling inflation and looser monetary policy. Another major helping hand will come in the form of cash handouts ahead of the midterm elections in 2025. Government measures to tackle inflation will also boost private consumption. Investment will pick up, backed largely by the government as it pushes for infrastructure development.”

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