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Philippines Interest Rate

Philippines Interest Rate

Target Reverse Repurchase in Philippines

The target reverse repurchase rate ended 2022 at 5.50%, up from the 2.00% end-2021 value and up from the reading of 3.50% a decade earlier. For reference, the average target reverse repurchase rate in the Asia-Pacific region was 3.70% at the end of 2022. For more interest rate information, visit our dedicated page.

Philippines Interest Rate Chart

Note: This chart displays Policy Interest Rate (%) for Philippines from 2014 to 2023.
Source: Central Bank Philippines.

Philippines Interest Rate Data

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Target Reverse Repurchase (RRP) Rate (%, eop) 4.75 4.00 2.00 2.00 5.50
91-Day Treasury Bill (%, eop) 5.36 3.19 1.01 1.14 4.09
10-Year Bond Yield (%, eop) 7.07 4.45 3.02 4.82 7.01

Central Bank stands pat at December meeting

At its 14 December meeting, the Monetary Board of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) kept the target reverse repurchase (RRP) rate unchanged at 6.50%. Concurrently, the rates on the overnight deposit and lending facilities—which establish the floor and ceiling of the interest rate corridor—remained at 6.00% and 7.00%, respectively.

December’s hold was motivated by a stable inflation outlook and expectations of still-robust domestic activity. The BSP lowered its 2024 inflation forecast to 4.2% from 4.4% in November, inching closer to its 2.0–4.0% target range. In addition, the Bank deemed inflation expectations to have become largely anchored, with both 2024 and 2025 average forecasts coming in within target. Lastly, risks to inflation remained skewed to the upside due to increases in transport charges, electricity rates and oil prices. Consequently, the BSP opted for a hold “to allow inflation expectations to settle more firmly within the target range”.

The Bank was vague in its forward guidance, stating that it “remains ready to adjust monetary policy settings as necessary, in line with its mandate to ensure price stability.?” Our panelists anticipate the monetary policy loosening cycle to begin in H2 2024. The Bank is expected to convene next in February 2024.

Nicholas Mapa, senior economist at ING, commented on the outlook: “The Central Bank will likely extend its pause until inflation is “well-within” target and until inflation expectations are anchored. We expect the BSP to be on hold well into 2024, with potential rate cuts only likely to be considered towards the end of next year."

Consensus Forecasts and Projections for the next ten years

How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Philippine interest rate projections for the next ten years from a panel of 20 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable interest rate forecast available for Philippine interest rate.

Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Philippine interest rate projections.

Want to get access to the full dataset of Philippine interest rate forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.

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