Myanmar Economic Forecast

Myanmar Economic Outlook

December 16, 2021

Prospects appeared dim in Q3. Covid-19 cases jumped in July amid low vaccination coverage, forcing the introduction of new restrictions which likely weighed on activity. The manufacturing PMI became further entrenched in negative territory in the quarter amid shortages of materials, while exports and imports fell. Moreover, notable currency depreciation led to rising inflation, likely hitting private consumption. Turning to Q4, prospects have improved slightly: The currency has recovered some of its losses, and there was a slight rebound in the PMI in October–November. However, fixed investment likely continues to be hit by poor investor sentiment, with several international corporations announcing their intention to withdraw from the country. Moreover, intense civil conflict continues, while Canada, the UK and the U.S. imposed fresh sanctions on the regime in December.

Myanmar Economic Growth

In FY 2022 (October 2021–September 2022), GDP is projected to recover somewhat, although this will be partly due to a base effect as the ongoing armed conflict will drag on momentum. Risks are tilted to the downside, with further international sanctions, the public health situation, a potential banking crisis and the value of the kyat all key factors to watch. The FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panel projects the economy to grow 2.1% in FY 2022, which is down 0.4 percentage points from last month’s estimate, and to grow 6.3% in FY 2023.

Myanmar Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)51.852.352.652.853.0
GDP per capita (USD)1,2191,1571,1661,2171,305
GDP (USD bn)63.260.561.464.369.2
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)7.05.95.86.46.8
Unemployment Rate4.04.04.04.0-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.8-3.9-2.7-3.0-3.5
Public Debt (% of GDP)35.837.838.336.338.2
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)9.47.04.66.98.8
Policy Interest Rate (%)10.0010.0010.0010.0010.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)1,3041,3581,3621,5501,466
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1,1651,2361,3641,4431,522
Current Account (% of GDP)-3.4-4.2-6.5-4.2-2.0
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-2.2-2.5-4.0-4.2-1.4
Trade Balance (USD billion)-3.8-3.6-5.8-4.3-  
Exports (USD billion)10.09.29.811.1-  
Imports (USD billion)13.812.815.615.4-  
Exports (annual variation in %)-0.7-7.36.212.9-  
Imports (annual variation in %)15.7-7.021.6-1.1-  
International Reserves (USD)4.44.64.95.35.5
External Debt (% of GDP)22.623.424.523.2-  

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Myanmar Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield16.000.0 %Oct 15
Exchange Rate1,4760.0 %Jan 01

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