Myanmar Economic Forecast

Myanmar Economic Outlook

June 21, 2022

Following a projected sharp contraction in FY 2021 (October 2020–September 2021), economic conditions have seemingly improved somewhat in FY 2022 (October 2021–September 2022). Merchandise exports expanded uninterruptedly from October 2021 to February 2022. Moreover, after reaching a low point in March 2021, the manufacturing PMI improved and averaged higher from October 2021 to May 2022 compared to last fiscal year. That said, economic sanctions, currency controls and power shortages have continued to depress the economy. Against this backdrop, the World Bank recently declined to issue growth forecasts for fiscal year 2021 and beyond, citing significant uncertainty. Meanwhile, in late May, the Central Bank ordered state agencies not to use foreign currencies in a bid to support the local currency. More positively, Myanmar and Cambodia are strengthening trade ties.

Myanmar Economic Growth

In FY 2022, GDP is expected to contract, though to a lesser degree than in FY 2021. International sanctions, electricity shortages amid higher energy prices, and political uncertainty will weigh on the economy. Moreover, global supply disruptions, further sanctions and a potential banking crisis all cloud the outlook. That said, some recovery in the tourism industry should support activity. The FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panel projects the economy to shrink by 1.3% in FY 2022, which is unchanged from last month’s estimate, and to grow 3.9% in FY 2023.

Myanmar Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)51.852.352.652.853.0
GDP per capita (USD)1,2191,1571,1661,2171,305
GDP (USD bn)63.260.561.464.369.2
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)7.05.95.86.46.8
Unemployment Rate4.04.04.04.0-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.8-3.9-2.7-3.0-3.5
Public Debt (% of GDP)35.837.838.336.338.2
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)9.47.04.66.98.8
Policy Interest Rate (%)10.0010.0010.0010.0010.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)1,3041,3581,3621,5501,466
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1,1651,2361,3641,4431,522
Current Account (% of GDP)-3.4-4.2-6.5-4.2-2.0
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-2.2-2.5-4.0-4.2-1.4
Trade Balance (USD billion)-3.8-3.6-5.8-4.3-  
Exports (USD billion)10.09.29.811.1-  
Imports (USD billion)13.812.815.615.4-  
Exports (annual variation in %)-0.7-7.36.212.9-  
Imports (annual variation in %)15.7-7.021.6-1.1-  
International Reserves (USD)4.44.64.95.35.5
External Debt (% of GDP)22.623.424.523.2-  

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Myanmar Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield16.000.0 %Oct 15
Exchange Rate1,4760.0 %Jan 01

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