Lithuania Economic Forecast

Lithuania Economic Outlook

August 31, 2021

According to a flash estimate, GDP growth accelerated on an annual basis in the second quarter, reaching its fastest pace in nearly 10 years, amid more moderate lockdown restrictions throughout the period as well as a favorable base effect. Q2’s result came on the back of strong performances in the retail and industrial sectors: Retail sales averaged markedly higher in April–June compared to Q1 amid improved consumer sentiment on average, while industrial production growth surged at a record rate in the same period. Moreover, external activity gained traction in Q2, with merchandise exports growing at a significantly swifter pace than in the previous quarter. However, turning to Q3, tensions have continued to flare up at the border with Belarus, after Lithuania recently accused President Lukashenko of using migrants as leverage in a bid to force the EU to lift sanctions.

Lithuania Economic Growth

The economy is projected to grow robustly this year as vaccination efforts gain steam and economies abroad continue to reopen. A broad-based rebound in activity is expected to drive the recovery. However, uncertainty regarding the pandemic and recent geopolitical tensions with neighboring Belarus weigh on the outlook. FocusEconomics analysts see the economy growing 3.9% in 2021, which is up 0.3 percentage points from last month’s projection. In 2022, the economy is expected to grow 3.9% again.

Lithuania Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)2.92.92.82.82.8
GDP per capita (EUR)12,84013,56314,95816,14417,385
GDP (EUR bn)37.338.942.345.348.4
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)2.02.64.23.63.9
Consumption (annual variation in %)4.14.03.53.73.2
Investment (annual variation in %)4.93.48.28.47.4
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)4.42.96.94.93.4
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)5.36.94.56.55.5
Unemployment Rate8.87.66.76.06.4
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-0.30.20.50.60.3
Public Debt (% of GDP)42.639.739.133.836.3
Money (annual variation in %)33.17.35.911.410.4
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)-0.11.73.91.92.7
Inflation Rate (HICP, annual variation in %)-0.70.73.72.52.2
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-9.6-4.45.15.6-0.1
Policy Interest Rate (%)0.0-  -  -  -  
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)-  -  -  -  -  
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)1.001.001.001.001.00
Current Account (% of GDP)-2.4-1.20.40.44.4
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)-0.9-0.40.20.12.1
Trade Balance (EUR billion)-2.1-1.9-2.1-2.8-2.2
Exports (EUR billion)19.719.522.824.626.0
Imports (EUR billion)21.821.424.827.328.2
Exports (annual variation in %)-4.3-1.016.97.96.0
Imports (annual variation in %)0.9-2.016.210.13.1
International Reserves (EUR)1.62.53.75.04.5
External Debt (% of GDP)76.986.283.878.468.1

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Lithuania Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield0.430.0 %Dec 30

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