Lithuania Economic Forecast

Lithuania Economic Outlook

May 31, 2022

Economic growth moderated in Q1 due to weaker performances in the industrial, wholesale and retail trade sectors. Although more comprehensive data is yet to be released, available data for the quarter hints at subdued consumer spending. The unemployment rate remained elevated in Q1, while consumer sentiment tumbled to its lowest level since the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic in March. Moreover, inflation hit never-before-seen levels in March, and only worsened at the outset of Q2, when price pressures hit a fresh record high. In addition, industrial output moderated markedly in April, as sanctions against Belarus—a major trading partner—took hold. Lastly, the European Commission’s recent 2022 Country Report noted that Lithuania should push forward reforms in the energy sector in order to offset rising energy costs and reduce its increasing carbon footprint.

Lithuania Economic Growth

GDP is projected to expand at a softer pace this year, in part due to a less favorable base effect. The ongoing war in Ukraine and subsequently elevated inflation will likely hurt activity, while geopolitical uncertainty throughout the region poses risks to the outlook. That said, a healthy inflow of EU funds and robust government spending should support the economy. FocusEconomics analysts see the economy growing 2.0% in 2022, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. In 2023, they expect it to expand 2.5%.

Lithuania Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)2.92.92.82.82.8
GDP per capita (EUR)12,84013,56314,95816,14417,385
GDP (EUR bn)37.338.942.345.348.4
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)2.02.64.23.63.9
Consumption (annual variation in %)4.14.03.53.73.2
Investment (annual variation in %)4.93.48.28.47.4
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)4.42.96.94.93.4
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)5.36.94.56.55.5
Unemployment Rate8.87.66.76.06.4
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-0.30.20.50.60.3
Public Debt (% of GDP)42.639.739.133.836.3
Money (annual variation in %)33.17.35.911.410.4
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)-0.11.73.91.92.7
Inflation Rate (HICP, annual variation in %)-0.70.73.72.52.2
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-9.6-4.45.15.6-0.1
Policy Interest Rate (%)0.0-  -  -  -  
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)-  -  -  -  -  
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)1.001.001.001.001.00
Current Account (% of GDP)-2.4-1.20.40.44.4
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)-0.9-0.40.20.12.1
Trade Balance (EUR billion)-2.1-1.9-2.1-2.8-2.2
Exports (EUR billion)19.719.522.824.626.0
Imports (EUR billion)21.821.424.827.328.2
Exports (annual variation in %)-4.3-1.016.97.96.0
Imports (annual variation in %)0.9-2.016.210.13.1
International Reserves (EUR)1.62.53.75.04.5
External Debt (% of GDP)76.986.283.878.468.1

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Lithuania Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield0.430.0 %Dec 30

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