Lithuania Government Consumption

Economic growth ebbs in the first quarter of 2026

GDP reading: Lithuania's GDP increased 2.6% on a year-on-year basis in Q1, following 3.3% growth in the previous quarter. On a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis, GDP shrank 0.3% in Q1, following 1.9% growth in the prior quarter.

Drivers: Relative to the previous period's data, figures in Q1 worsened for fixed investment (+1.5% in annual terms vs +7.3% in Q4), exports of goods and services (+1.7% vs +8.2% in Q4) and imports of goods and services (+0.3% vs +8.0% in Q4). In contrast, readings picked up for private consumption (+2.9% vs +1.6% in Q4) and government consumption (+0.8% vs +0.3% in Q4).

Panelist insight: Swedbank’s Nerijus Maciulis, Greta Ilekyte and Vismantas Žukas commented on the outlook: “Manufacturing and exports started the year in low gear, but despite the geopolitical tensions and an inflation rate that’s approaching 5%, Lithuanian consumers are undeterred. GDP growth is expected to reach 3% this year, not least because of extensive withdrawals from the second-pillar pension funds. […] This year’s growth will be further boosted by the final (and largest) payouts from the EU Recovery and Resilience Facility, as well as an increasing budget deficit (we estimate that fiscal impulse will exceed 1% of GDP). Public investments in defence and infrastructure are surging; private investments are also expected to continue increasing. Growth will be further supported by rapid (yet sustainable) credit growth.”

How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Lithuanian government consumption projections for the next ten years from a panel of 9 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable government consumption forecast available for Lithuanian government consumption.

Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Lithuanian government consumption projections.

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