GDP growth loses momentum in Q1

Slowing momentum confirmed: A second release confirmed that GDP growth slowed to 3.0% year on year in the first quarter of 2025 on a seasonally and calendar-adjusted basis, down from 3.9% in the fourth quarter of last year. Meanwhile, on a seasonally and calendar-adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis, the economy expanded 0.4% in Q1, falling short of the prior quarter’s 1.0% expansion.

Public and private spending decelerate: Domestically, household spending growth fell to 0.4% in Q1, marking the weakest expansion since Q3 2023 (Q4 2024: +4.7% yoy). Government consumption also lost steam and expanded 1.2% (Q4 2024: +1.4% yoy). Meanwhile, fixed investment growth improved to 6.9% in Q1, following the 0.7% increase logged in the prior quarter. On the external front, exports of goods and services growth fell to 0.3% in Q1, marking the worst reading since Q4 2023 (Q4 2024: +0.5% yoy). Moreover, imports of goods and services growth sped up to 7.0% in Q1 (Q4 2024: +4.3% yoy), marking the strongest reading since Q4 2022.

How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Lithuanian government consumption projections for the next ten years from a panel of 9 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable government consumption forecast available for Lithuanian government consumption.

Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Lithuanian government consumption projections.

Want to get access to the full dataset of Lithuanian government consumption forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.