Lithuania Private consumption

Economic growth picks up in the second quarter of 2026

GDP reading: Lithuania's GDP increased 3.8% in seasonally and calendar-adjusted annual terms in Q2, following a 2.8% expansion in the prior quarter. Q2's reading was the strongest since Q4 2024. On a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis, economic output increased 1.7% in Q2, following a 0.1% contraction in the prior quarter.

Household consumption and capital outlays support acceleration: Compared with the previous quarter's data, readings in Q2 improved for private consumption (+4.1% in annual terms vs +3.4% in Q1), fixed investment (+7.3% vs +0.2% in Q1), exports of goods and services (+5.2% vs +4.2% in Q1) and imports of goods and services (+8.4% vs +4.9% in Q1). In contrast, the reading for government consumption worsened in Q2 (+0.2% vs +0.6% in Q1).

Panelist insight: Swedbank’s Greta Ilekyté commented: “Economic growth is expected to slow in the second half of the year. The temporary lift from pension withdrawals will fade, while higher inflation weighs on real purchasing power growth—pointing to weaker consumption ahead.” EIU analysts said: “Real GDP is forecast to rise by 2.3% in 2026, a slower pace to the expansion of 2.9% in 2025. […] Inflation will soar above the ECB's 2.0% target, eating away into the size of real wage increases. Indicators of consumer confidence have also deteriorated since the start of the Iran war, which we expect to translate into more conservative spending. Government consumption growth will continue as more funding is shifted to the defence sector to bolster the country's protections against Russia. Efforts to equip the defence sector will help to underpin investment growth.”

How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Lithuanian private consumption projections for the next ten years from a panel of 12 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable private consumption forecast available for Lithuanian private consumption.

Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Lithuanian private consumption projections.

Want to get access to the full dataset of Lithuanian private consumption forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.