Kazakhstan Economic Forecast

Kazakhstan Economic Outlook

June 7, 2022

Recent data shows that GDP accelerated further in Q1. Q1’s expansion was driven mainly by the mining and manufacturing sectors. In contrast, the agriculture and services sectors saw smaller expansions, with the latter potentially linked to unrest in January and softer Russian visitor arrivals. Turning to Q2, growth is likely to be sluggish. In April, oil production fell markedly and manufacturing output slowed. Moreover, soaring inflation and consequent interest rate hikes should be dampening consumption. However, the services PMI recovered well above the 50-point mark in April and May, suggesting that businesses are weathering the adverse international environment rather well. Meanwhile, the country voted in early June in favor of a new constitution which aims to give more power to parliament and reduce the influence of former president Nazarbayev.

Kazakhstan Economic Growth

Our panelists expect only moderate growth in 2022 due to Kazakhstan’s strong links with a weakening Russian economy, high inflation and tighter monetary policy. However, pro-market reforms and sky-high oil prices should support activity. A resurgence of social unrest and potential further sanctions on Russia are downside risks. FocusEconomics analysts project GDP to expand 2.7% in 2022, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. In 2023, the economy is set to grow 3.8%.

Kazakhstan Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)17.717.918.218.418.6
GDP per capita (USD)6,7937,8569,0028,8199,662
GDP per capita (EUR)6,2537,4487,4977,7158,608
GDP (USD bn)120141163162180
GDP (EUR bn)110133136142160
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)1.21.14.14.14.5
Consumption (annual variation in %)1.81.21.56.15.8
Investment (annual variation in %)4.23.04.55.411.9
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)-1.6-1.27.24.13.9
Unemployment Rate5.14.94.94.8-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.2-1.6-2.7-1.3-1.9
Public Debt (% of GDP)22.828.226.326.025.2
Money (annual variation of M2 in %)8.046.27.57.111.0
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)13.68.57.15.35.4
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)6.614.77.46.05.2
Policy Interest Rate (%)16.0012.0010.259.259.25
Exchange Rate (vs USD)340.6333.7332.8384.3382.9
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)223.3342.0326.3345.2383.0
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)369.9350.9399.3440.8429.3
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)247.5378.6369.0407.0428.7
Current Account (% of GDP)-5.0-5.8-3.1-0.1-3.6
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-6.0-8.1-5.1-0.2-6.5
Trade Balance (USD billion)11.69.316.725.619.1
Exports (USD billion)44.835.547.359.857.8
Imports (USD billion)33.226.230.634.238.7
Exports (annual variation in %)-43.3-20.833.326.5-3.3
Imports (annual variation in %)-21.8-21.016.512.013.0
International Reserves (USD)27.929.731.030.929.0
External Debt (% of GDP)12711610297.987.1

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Kazakhstan Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate382.90.32 %Jan 01
Stock Market0.10.0 %Jan 07

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