Canada Economic Forecast
September 28, 2021GDP contracted in Q2, as a decline in fixed investment hampered growth in domestic demand, while a steep drop in exports weighed on the external sector. Turning to Q3, the economy should have rebounded robustly, but a preliminary GDP estimate for the month of July suggested output dipped 0.4%, dragged down by downbeat manufacturing and retail trade activity. Meanwhile, fears of another wave of Covid-19 cases will likely keep authorities from easing restrictions anytime soon. Nevertheless, the unemployment rate dipped to its lowest level since February 2020 in August, while the manufacturing PMI suggested activity expanded at a quicker pace in the same month relative to July, boding well for overall GDP. In politics, Trudeau’s Liberal Party failed to secure a majority government in the latest election held on 20 September, but will remain in power, leaving the economic landscape more or less the same.
Canada Economic GrowthGDP is seen expanding at a rapid pace this year as the impact of the pandemic fades. In 2022, growth should ease on a less favorable base effect, but falling unemployment, high accumulated savings, looser restrictions and monetary stimulus should propel household spending. However, uncertainty surrounding new variants of the virus clouds the outlook. FocusEconomics analysts project growth of 5.5% in 2021. In 2022, our analysts see growth easing to 4.1%, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month.
Canada Economy Data
5 years of Canada economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Bond Yield||1.70||1.00 %||Dec 31|
|Exchange Rate||1.30||0.15 %||Jan 01|
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Canada Economic News
October 20, 2021
Consumer prices increased a seasonally-adjusted 0.42% over the previous month in September, a smaller increase than August's 0.49% increase.
October 20, 2021
According to the Teranet-National Bank Composite House Price Index, house price growth fell to 0.1% on a month-on-month non-seasonally-adjusted basis in September, down from August’s 1.0%.
October 19, 2021
Housing starts fell to 251,151 units on a seasonally-adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) basis in September according to the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC), from August’s 262,754-unit reading.
October 1, 2021
In September, the IHS Markit Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell from 57.2 in August to 57.0.
September 30, 2021
The economy was flat month-on-month in July, after rising 0.6% in June.