Latest bank decision: At its meeting on 10 June, the Bank of Canada held the target for the overnight rate...
Target for the Overnight Rate in Canada
Over the last decade, Canada's central bank policy rates experienced cycles of reduction and increase. The rates were lowered to near-zero during the COVID-19 pandemic to support the economy. As the economy began recovering, the central bank increased rates to manage inflationary pressures. From 2024, a rate cut cycle began in response to declining inflation, rising unemployment and mild economic growth.
The target for the overnight rate ended 2024 at 3.25%, compared to the end-2023 value of 5.00% and the figure a decade earlier of 1.00%. It averaged 1.77% over the last decade. For more interest rate information, visit our dedicated page.
Canada Interest Rate Chart
Note: This chart displays Policy Interest Rate (%) for Canada from 2014 to 2025.
Source: Macrobond.
Canada Interest Rate Data
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Target for the Overnight Rate (%, eop) | 0.25 | 4.25 | 5.00 | 3.25 | 2.25 |
| 3-Month T-Bill (%, eop) | 0.16 | 4.23 | 5.04 | 3.16 | 2.32 |
| 10-Year Bond Yield (%, eop) | 1.49 | 3.30 | 3.11 | 3.23 | 3.22 |
Bank of Canada holds rates in June
Latest bank decision: At its meeting on 10 June, the Bank of Canada held the target for the overnight rate at 2.25%, following 100 basis points of cuts last year.
Bank opts again for wait-and-see approach: The Bank likely wanted to judge the effect of the 275 basis points of interest rate cuts since mid-2024 before countenancing any further rate changes. Elevated international uncertainty linked to conflict in the Middle East and future U.S. tariff policy was another reason to stay on hold. A combination of an economy that is expected to expand moderately going forward plus inflation within the Bank’s 1.0–3.0% target range gave the Bank the leeway to stay put.
Monetary policy likely to be unchanged ahead: Our Consensus is for rates to be broadly unchanged from now to end-2026, though one panelist sees a cut and a few see hikes. Much will depend on future changes in U.S. trade policy and their impact on Canadian GDP and inflation, as well as how conflict in the Middle East affects energy prices ahead.
Panelist insight: On the outlook, Desjardins’ Randall Bartlett said: “The Bank highlighted broad weakness in the Canadian economy and shares our view that the economy remains in excess supply. If the US significantly increases tariffs on Canada, it may need to support growth. Given the two-sided risks to the inflation outlook, the Bank of Canada appears comfortable leaving rates on hold for now. We continue to expect the policy rate to remain unchanged until 2027.”
Consensus Forecasts and Projections for the next ten years
How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Canadian interest rate projections for the next ten years from a panel of 23 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable interest rate forecast available for Canadian interest rate.
Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Canadian interest rate projections.
Want to get access to the full dataset of Canadian interest rate forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.
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