Economic Growth in Canada
Canada experienced stable but moderate GDP growth from 2013 to 2022. The economy benefited from brisk population growth, close ties to a robust U.S. economy, strong natural resource sectors and improved trade ties with Asian and European economies thanks to participation in new free trade deals. Post-pandemic recovery in 2021-2022 was supported by fiscal stimulus and rebounding global demand.
The Canadian economy recorded an average growth rate of 1.8% in the decade to 2022, in line with the 1.8% average for Major Economies. In 2022, the real GDP growth was 3.4%. For more GDP information, visit our dedicated page.
Canada GDP Chart
Canada GDP Data
|Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %)||2.8||1.9||-5.1||5.0||3.4|
|GDP (USD bn)||1,725||1,743||1,648||2,002||2,137|
|GDP (CAD bn)||2,236||2,314||2,210||2,510||2,783|
|Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %)||4.4||3.5||-4.5||13.6||10.9|
Economic activity remains broadly stable in August
GDP was flat month-on-month in seasonally-adjusted terms in August (July: 0.0% mom), weighed on by interest rates, inflation, forest fires and drought conditions. On an annual basis, monthly GDP grew 0.9% in August, which was below July’s 1.1% expansion and marked the worst result since February 2021.
In August, mild growth in services was offset by lower manufacturing and agricultural output.
Flash data by the statistics office suggested that GDP was unchanged month on month in September, with decreases in mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction and utilities partially offset by increases in the construction and public sectors. This means the economy should have also flatlined in Q3 as a whole, which is broadly in line with our panelists’ projections but below the Central Bank’s forecast for a 0.8% annualized quarterly expansion. For Q4, our Consensus is currently for the economy to broadly stagnate for the third straight quarter.
On the outlook, TD Economics’ Marc Ercolao said: “Higher interest rates are certainly doing their part to tamp down excess demand, and we continue to expect below-trend growth for the next couple of quarters.”
How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Canadian GDP projections for the next ten years from a panel of 39 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable GDP forecast available for Canadian GDP.
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