Inflation in United States
The United States experienced low and stable inflation for most of 2013-2022, averaging around 2%. This period of stability, underpinned by effective monetary policy, was disrupted significantly by the COVID-19 pandemic. In 2021-2022, inflation rates surged to their highest in decades, driven by supply chain issues, stimulus spending, and increased consumer demand. This sudden spike posed challenges for monetary policy, highlighting the delicate balance between economic stimulus and inflation control in such unprecedented economic conditions.
Consumer price inflation in the United States averaged 2.5% in the ten years to 2022, above the major economies' regional average of 2.1%. The 2022 average figure was 8.0%. For more inflation information, visit our dedicated page.
United States Inflation Chart
United States Inflation Data
2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 1.8 | 1.2 | 4.7 | 8.0 | 4.1 |
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop) | 2.3 | 1.4 | 7.0 | 6.5 | 3.4 |
Inflation (Core, ann. var. %, aop) | 2.2 | 1.7 | 3.6 | 6.2 | 4.8 |
Inflation (PPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 1.7 | 0.2 | 7.0 | 9.5 | 2.0 |
Inflation declines to lowest level since June 2023 in June
Inflation edged down to 3.0% in June, following May’s 3.3%. June's figure marked the lowest inflation rate since June 2023 and was below market expectations. The reading was largely due to more moderate price pressures for housing, energy and transport. The trend was unchanged, with annual average inflation coming in at May's 3.3% in June. Meanwhile, core inflation fell to 3.3% in June from the previous month's 3.4%. Lastly, consumer prices dropped 0.06% over the previous month in June, swinging from the 0.01% increase seen in May. June's result marked the sharpest fall in prices since May 2020.
On monetary policy implications, Desjardins’ Francis Généreux said: “After disappointing data in the first few months of 2024, price movements have been much more encouraging in the past two months, particularly in the services sector. But we shouldn’t expect the Fed to announce a rate cut in the immediate future. They’ll want to be sure that inflation continues to cool before making their move. We’re still calling for two rate cuts in 2024, probably close to the end of the year.”
How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects American inflation projections for the next ten years from a panel of 63 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable inflation forecast available for American inflation.
Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our American inflation projections.
Want to get access to the full dataset of American inflation forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.
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