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United States Inflation

United States Inflation

Inflation in United States

The United States experienced low and stable inflation for most of 2013-2022, averaging around 2%. This period of stability, underpinned by effective monetary policy, was disrupted significantly by the COVID-19 pandemic. In 2021-2022, inflation rates surged to their highest in decades, driven by supply chain issues, stimulus spending, and increased consumer demand. This sudden spike posed challenges for monetary policy, highlighting the delicate balance between economic stimulus and inflation control in such unprecedented economic conditions.

Consumer price inflation in the United States averaged 2.5% in the ten years to 2022, above the major economies' regional average of 2.1%. The 2022 average figure was 8.0%. For more inflation information, visit our dedicated page.

United States Inflation Chart

Note: This chart displays Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %) for United States from 2014 to 2023.
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

United States Inflation Data

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) 2.4 1.8 1.2 4.7 8.0
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop) 1.9 2.3 1.4 7.0 6.5
Inflation (Core, ann. var. %, aop) 2.1 2.2 1.7 3.6 6.2
Inflation (PPI, ann. var. %, aop) 2.9 1.7 0.2 7.0 9.5

Inflation drops slightly in April

Inflation edged down to 3.4% in April, which followed March’s 3.5% and was in line with market expectations. That said, inflation was still well above the Fed’s 2.0% target. The softer rise was largely driven by more moderate rises in prices for housing and transportation. Annual average inflation ticked down to 3.4% in April (March: 3.5%). Meanwhile, core inflation edged down to 3.6% in April, from March’s 3.8%. Finally, consumer prices increased 0.31% in April over the previous month, slowing down from March's 0.38% increase. April's result marked the weakest reading since January.

On the monetary policy implications of the data, Nomura analysts said: “This report will support the case that the Q1 inflation acceleration was an anomaly. It will take time for the FOMC to rebuild confidence in disinflation, but we continue to expect two rate cuts this year, in July and December.” TD Economics’ Thomas Feltmate said: “One 'good' month does not undo Q1's string of hotter inflation readings […] the 3-and-6-month inflation trends are expected to gradually cool through the second half of the year and likely be in a place by late-2024 where policymakers would feel comfortable to begin dialing back the policy rate.”

Consensus Forecasts and Projections for the next ten years

How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects American inflation projections for the next ten years from a panel of 63 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable inflation forecast available for American inflation.

Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our American inflation projections.

Want to get access to the full dataset of American inflation forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.

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