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United States Inflation

United States Inflation

Inflation in United States

The United States experienced low and stable inflation for most of 2013-2022, averaging around 2%. This period of stability, underpinned by effective monetary policy, was disrupted significantly by the COVID-19 pandemic. In 2021-2022, inflation rates surged to their highest in decades, driven by supply chain issues, stimulus spending, and increased consumer demand. This sudden spike posed challenges for monetary policy, highlighting the delicate balance between economic stimulus and inflation control in such unprecedented economic conditions.

Consumer price inflation in the United States averaged 2.5% in the ten years to 2022, above the major economies' regional average of 2.1%. The 2022 average figure was 8.0%. For more inflation information, visit our dedicated page.

United States Inflation Chart

Note: This chart displays Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %) for United States from 2013 to 2022.
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

United States Inflation Data

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) 2.4 1.8 1.2 4.7 8.0
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop) 1.9 2.3 1.4 7.0 6.5
Inflation (Core, ann. var. %, aop) 2.1 2.2 1.7 3.6 6.2
Inflation (PPI, ann. var. %, aop) 2.9 1.7 0.2 7.0 9.5

Inflation falls to lowest level since July in October

Inflation came in at 3.2% in October, down from September’s 3.7% and undershooting market expectations. October's reading represented the weakest inflation rate since July, but was still above the Fed’s 2% target. The result was driven by moderating price pressures for housing and food. Moreover, prices for energy dropped. In addition, the trend pointed down, with annual average inflation coming in at 4.7% in October (September: 5.1%). Meanwhile, core inflation edged down to 4.0% in October, from the previous month's 4.1%. Finally, consumer prices rose 0.04% in October over the previous month, after the 0.40% increase recorded in September and also undershooting market expectations. October's result marked the weakest reading since July 2022.

The reading should encourage the Fed to stay on hold at its last meeting of the year in mid-December, as predicted by the vast majority of our panelists.

On the monetary policy implications, Desjardins’ Francis Généreux said: “[The] drop in headline inflation and slight decline in core inflation are good news that will reassure Fed officials that they made the right call by holding rates steady at their recent meetings. But inflationary pressures will need to continue to ease up. If they do, the Fed’s next moves could be rate cuts—but probably not until next summer.”

Consensus Forecasts and Projections for the next ten years

How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects American inflation projections for the next ten years from a panel of 62 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable inflation forecast available for American inflation.

Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our American inflation projections.

Want to get access to the full dataset of American inflation forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.

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