Fiscal Balance in United States
The United States experienced significant fiscal shifts over the last decade. Early in the decade, efforts were made to reduce the post-financial crisis deficit, achieving some success. However, major tax cuts in 2017 under Trump reversed this trend, widening the deficit. The COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 led to unprecedented fiscal stimulus, further enlarging the budget shortfall. President Biden did not make tackling the deficit a priority, and in 2024 the U.S. had the largest fiscal deficit in the G7. The second Trump administration has attempted to reduce government spending through the DOGE department, though our panelists do not see these efforts doing much to dent a budget shortfall of more than 6% of GDP.
The fiscal balance in the United States averaged -5.9% of GDP in the decade to 2023, above the major economies average of -4.5% of GDP. The fiscal balance in 2023 was -6.3% of GDP. For more fiscal balance information, visit our dedicated page.
United States Fiscal Balance Chart
Note: This chart displays Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) for United States from 2024 to 2023.
Source: Macrobond.
United States Fiscal Balance Data
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -14.7 | -12.1 | -5.4 | -6.2 | -6.3 |
How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects American fiscal balance projections for the next ten years from a panel of 26 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable fiscal balance forecast available for American fiscal balance.
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