United States: Job gains beat expectations again in June
Total non-farm payrolls grew by 206,000 in June, down from 218,000 in May but slightly overshooting market expectations. Job gains...
Unemployment in United Kingdom
The United Kingdom's labor market from 2013 to 2022 showed resilience. The unemployment rate steadily declined early in the decade, reaching historic lows by 2019. However, Brexit uncertainties and the COVID-19 pandemic caused disruptions, leading to a temporary spike in unemployment. By 2022, the job market had largely recovered, with unemployment rates back below pre-pandemic levels, although challenges such as labor shortages in specific sectors persisted.
The unemployment rate in the United Kingdom averaged 4.9% in the decade to 2022, below the 6.3% average for major economies. The unemployment rate in 2022 was 3.7%. For more unemployment information, visit our dedicated page.
United Kingdom Unemployment Chart
Note: This chart displays Unemployment Rate for United Kingdom from 2014 to 2023.
Source: Macrobond.
United Kingdom Unemployment Data
| 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 3.9 | 4.7 | 4.6 | 3.9 | 4.0 |
| Unemployment (% of active population, rolling qt) | 3.9 | 5.3 | 4.2 | 3.9 | 3.8 |
Labor market shows signs of weakening
According to the statistical office, vacancy numbers declined in the three months to May for the 23nd consecutive three-month period, but were still above pre-pandemic levels. In addition, employment fell for the second straight month in May, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.4% in February–April, the highest rate since 2021. More positively, at over 5% year on year in April, wage growth continued to outpace inflation, pointing to improving consumer purchasing power.
Our Consensus is for the unemployment rate to remain slightly above 4% in the coming quarters, thus staying slightly below the G7 average.
Providing a caveat to the latest data, ING’s James Smith said: “The UK jobs market is cooling quite noticeably now […] The latest hiring figures tend to back that up, though of course there are still major question marks surrounding the quality of the data. Taken at face value, the rise in the unemployment rate from 3.8% at the end of last year to 4.4% now is pretty eye-catching. But the very pronounced fall in the response rate to the Labour Force Survey and potential bias in the achieved sample means it is still hard to know how seriously to take these latest numbers.”
Consensus Forecasts and Projections for the next ten years
How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects British unemployment projections for the next ten years from a panel of 40 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable unemployment forecast available for British unemployment.
Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our British unemployment projections.
Want to get access to the full dataset of British unemployment forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.
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