Argentina:
Inflation came in at 124.4% in August, up from July’s 113.4%. August’s figure represented the highest inflation rate since our...
Inflation in United Kingdom
The United Kingdom saw inflation in line with the Central Bank's target of 2% on average in the previous decade. Inflation remained relatively stable until 2016 but began to rise post-Brexit due to currency depreciation. The COVID-19 pandemic further influenced inflation, leading to a significant spike in 2021-2022, driven by supply chain disruptions and increased consumer demand.
Consumer price inflation in the United Kingdom averaged 2.4% in the ten years to 2022, above the Major Economies' regional average of 2.1%. The 2022 average figure was 9.1%. For more inflation information, visit our dedicated page.
United Kingdom Inflation Chart
Note: This chart displays Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %) for United Kingdom from 2018 to 2017.
Source: Macrobond.
United Kingdom Inflation Data
| 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 1.8 | 0.9 | 2.6 | 9.1 | 7.3 |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop) | 1.3 | 0.6 | 5.4 | 10.5 | 4.0 |
| Inflation (PPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 1.4 | -1.0 | 5.2 | 16.0 | 3.2 |
Inflation remains at joint-lowest level since April 2021 in June
Inflation came in at 2.0% in June, matching May’s figure and in line with the Bank of England’s 2.0% target. June's result represented the joint-weakest inflation rate since April 2021, but was marginally above market expectations. Moderating price pressures for recreation and culture and food and non-alcoholic beverages offset higher price pressures for transport and hospitality. Annual average inflation fell to 4.1% in June (May: 4.6%). Meanwhile, core inflation ticked up to 3.6% in June from the previous month's 3.5%. Finally, consumer prices increased 0.11% over the previous month in June, a smaller increase than the 0.34% increase logged in May. June's result marked the weakest reading since January.
Nomura analysts commented on the monetary policy outlook: “The only component that was notably stronger than we had been assuming was accommodation, i.e. hotels […] At 5.7% y-o-y and 0.8% q-o-q the annual rate of growth of services CPI and quarterly growth rate of services PPI respectively are too strong for the Bank of England’s liking. This will undoubtedly make the MPC’s August decision a difficult one. With all of the upside miss in services inflation in [the June] report being due to a single factor, that might still allow the Bank to lower rates on 1 August – as we currently expect.”
Consensus Forecasts and Projections for the next ten years
How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects British inflation projections for the next ten years from a panel of 53 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable inflation forecast available for British inflation.
Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our British inflation projections.
Want to get access to the full dataset of British inflation forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.
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