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Inflation in Turkey
Turkey's inflation journey from 2013 to 2022 was turbulent, characterized by double-digit figures as a result of loose monetary and fiscal policies, and huge currency depreciation. By 2022, Turkey faced one of the highest inflation rates globally, driven by aggressive monetary policy easing amid political influence on central bank decision-making.
Consumer price inflation in Turkey averaged 17.9% in the ten years to 2022, which is above the Eastern Europe regional average of 7.7%. The 2022 average figure was 72.3%. For more inflation information, visit our dedicated page.
Turkey Inflation Chart
Note: This chart displays Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %) for Turkey from 2014 to 2023.
Source: Macrobond.
Turkey Inflation Data
| 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 15.2 | 12.3 | 19.6 | 72.3 | 53.9 |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop) | 11.8 | 14.6 | 36.1 | 64.3 | 64.8 |
| Inflation (Core, ann. var. %, eop) | 9.8 | 14.3 | 31.9 | 51.9 | 70.6 |
| Inflation (PPI, ann. var. %, eop) | 7.4 | 25.1 | 79.9 | 97.7 | 44.2 |
Inflation decreases in June
Inflation eased to 71.6% in June from May’s 75.4%. The print marked the first fall in eight months and surprised markets on the downside, which were expecting a smaller decline. The slowdown was largely due to a smaller rise in prices for food and non-alcoholic beverages. In addition, price pressures for transport softened. Moreover, prices for restaurants and hotels grew at a more subdued pace. Annual average inflation rose to 65.1% in June (May: 62.5%). Meanwhile, core inflation fell to 71.4% in June from May’s 75.0%. Lastly, consumer prices rose 1.64% in June over the previous month, a smaller increase than May's 3.37% increase. June's result marked the weakest reading since May 2023.
Our Consensus is for inflation to decline further in H2 due to past monetary tightening and a high base of comparison.
Clemens Grafe and Basak Edizgil, analysts at Goldman Sachs, commented on the outlook: “While we expect some acceleration in sequential inflation in July due to regulatory changes and some normalisation in core goods inflation, we think underlying inflation will continue to weaken in H2 as expectations adjust further with the sharp decline in headline inflation on base effects.”
Consensus Forecasts and Projections for the next ten years
How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Turkish inflation projections for the next ten years from a panel of 42 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable inflation forecast available for Turkish inflation.
Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Turkish inflation projections.
Want to get access to the full dataset of Turkish inflation forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.
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