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Turkey Inflation

Turkey Inflation

Inflation in Turkey

Turkey's inflation journey from 2013 to 2022 was turbulent, characterized by double-digit figures as a result of loose monetary and fiscal policies, and huge currency depreciation. By 2022, Turkey faced one of the highest inflation rates globally, driven by aggressive monetary policy easing amid political influence on central bank decision-making.

Consumer price inflation in Turkey averaged 17.9% in the ten years to 2022, which is above the Eastern Europe regional average of 7.7%. The 2022 average figure was 72.3%. For more inflation information, visit our dedicated page.

Turkey Inflation Chart

Note: This chart displays Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) for Turkey from 2014 to 2023.
Source: TURKSTAT.

Turkey Inflation Data

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) 16.3 15.2 12.3 19.6 72.3
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop) 20.3 11.8 14.6 36.1 64.3
Inflation (Core, ann. var. %, eop) 19.5 9.8 14.3 31.9 51.9
Inflation (PPI, ann. var. %, eop) 33.6 7.4 25.1 79.9 97.7

Inflation comes in at highest level since November 2022 in January

Inflation rose to 64.9% in January, above December’s 64.8%. January's figure was the highest inflation rate since November 2022. Looking at the details of the release, prices for transporation and for housing and utilities rose at a quicker pace in January compared to the previous month. The trend pointed up, with annual average inflation coming in at 54.7% in January (December: 53.9%). Meanwhile, core inflation edged down to 70.5% in January, from the previous month's 70.6%. Lastly, consumer prices increased 6.70% in January over the previous month, picking up from December's 2.93% increase. January's result was the highest reading since August 2023, and was due to a 49% minimum wage increase that took effect this month.

The Consensus is for inflation to hover around current levels in H1. Our panelists do not foresee a significant slowdown until the second half of the year.

Analysts at the EIU commented on the outlook: "We expect inflation to average about 52% in 2024 [...] Interest rates are still well below inflation, and we expect real rates to remain negative until 2025, which will encourage spending. A weak lira will also keep inflation high in the early months of 2024, before the base effects of the third quarter of 2023 kick in."

Consensus Forecasts and Projections for the next ten years

How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Turkish inflation projections for the next ten years from a panel of 39 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable inflation forecast available for Turkish inflation.

Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Turkish inflation projections.

Want to get access to the full dataset of Turkish inflation forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.

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