Skyline at golden hour in Turkey

Turkey GDP

Turkey GDP

Economic Growth in Turkey

Turkey's GDP growth from 2013 to 2022 was marked by volatility, influenced by political instability, monetary policy challenges, and currency fluctuations. The early years saw robust growth, but political upheavals and security concerns slowed the economy mid-decade. A sharp currency devaluation in 2018 prompted a further slowdown. That said, Turkey was one of the few large economies to avoid contraction in 2020 during the pandemic, and has notched rapid GDP growth in the two years since then.

Turkey's economy recorded an average growth rate of 5.3% in the decade to 2022, higher than the 2.5% average for Eastern Europe. In 2022, real GDP growth was 5.5%. For more GDP information, visit our dedicated page.

Turkey GDP Chart

Note: This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) for Turkey from 2013 to 2022.
Source: TURKSTAT.

Turkey GDP Data

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 3.0 0.8 1.9 11.4 5.5
GDP (USD bn) 776 760 719 814 905
GDP (EUR bn) 658 679 630 688 861
GDP (TRY bn) 3,761 4,318 5,049 7,256 15,012
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) 20.0 14.8 16.9 43.7 106.9

GDP growth plummets in the third quarter

GDP growth waned to 0.3% on a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis in the third quarter from 3.3% in Q2. The reading disappointed markets, which were expecting a softer deceleration. On an annual basis, economic growth improved to 5.9% in Q3, compared to the previous period's 3.9% expansion.

Q3’s sharp slowdown came amid the country’s policy shift to economic orthodoxy after May’s general election. The Central Bank doubled the key policy rate from 15.00% to 30.00% during the quarter. In addition, it allowed the lira to depreciate markedly, which reignited price pressures. Against this backdrop, private consumption deteriorated sharply, contracting by a seasonally adjusted 1.7% quarter on quarter in Q3 from 4.7% in Q2. Moreover, public consumption growth moderated to 1.8% in Q3 (Q2: +2.8% s.a. qoq), following generous pre-election spending in Q2. That said, fixed investment growth picked up to 5.4% in Q3 from the 3.1% expansion logged in the prior quarter. On the external front, exports of goods and services bounced back, growing 5.4% in Q3 (Q2: -1.3% s.a. qoq). Conversely, imports of goods and services growth moderated to 2.3% in Q3 (Q2: +5.2% s.a. qoq), a further testament to softening domestic demand.

Our panelists see the economy contracting in sequential terms in Q4, as it increasingly feels the effects of the ongoing hiking cycle; firms and households remained markedly pessimistic in October–November. Turning to 2024, GDP growth is seen slowing relative to this year’s projected expansion. Domestic demand is seen losing significant steam as monetary tightening fully filters through the economy. Moreover, inflation is set to remain stubbornly high, and the unemployment rate is projected to increase. More positively, exports are seen rebounding amid steadying economic activity in Europe. The intensification of regional geopolitical tensions is a downside risk.

Analysts at Fitch Solutions commented: “Our view remains that an unwinding of monetary and fiscal stimulus in the post-election period will trigger a recession, albeit one which is necessary to reduce the very high inflation which has plagued the economy.

Consensus Forecasts and Projections for the next ten years

How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Turkish GDP projections for the next ten years from a panel of 41 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable GDP forecast available for Turkish GDP.

Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Turkish GDP projections.

Want to get access to the full dataset of Turkish GDP forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.

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