Inflation in Poland

Poland - Inflation (end of period)
Inflation ticks up in November
Consumer prices inched up 0.1% over the previous month in November, following October’s 0.2% uptick, according to provisional data released by the Poland’s Statistical Institute (GUS). Higher prices for food and non-alcoholic beverages, utilities and fuels drove the increase. Core consumer prices in October (the latest month for which data is available) rose 0.3% in month-on-month terms, up from September’s 0.2% rise.
Inflation ticked up to 2.6% in November from 2.5% in October, and thus moved marginally above the midpoint of the Central Bank’s target range of 2.5% plus or minus 1.0 percentage point. For its part, core inflation came in at 2.4% in October, matching September’s reading, which had marked the highest reading since April 2012.
All told, annual average inflation inched up from October’s 2.0% to 2.1% in November, the highest print since June 2013.
Looking ahead, Rafal Benecki and Jakub Rybacki, Poland chief economist and economist at ING respectively, stated:
“We expect CPI to peak in 1Q around 3.5% YoY. Core inflation should remain a major contributor, fuelled by demand pressures and an increase in labour and energy costs for enterprises. […] Inflation should return to the central bank target (2.5% YoY) in the second half of 2020 due to a lower contribution from food prices. The growth structure should rely solely on core inflation. Such a situation suggests there is a risk of overshooting the inflation target's upper band (CPI above 3.5% YoY) in the event of external or domestic supply shocks (e.g. weaker crops, disruptions on the global oil markets)”.
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect inflation to average 2.5% in 2020, which is unchanged from last month’s projection. For 2021, the panel sees inflation averaging 2.6%.
Poland - Inflation (eop) Data
2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop) | 0.7 | -1.0 | -0.5 | 0.8 | 2.1 |
Poland Inflation (eop) Chart

Source: Central Statistics Office.
Poland Facts
Value | Change | Date | |
---|---|---|---|
Bond Yield | 2.08 | -0.30 % | Nov 21 |
Exchange Rate | 3.89 | -0.53 % | Nov 21 |
Stock Market | 57,619 | -1.13 % | Nov 21 |
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Economic News
Poland: Manufacturing sector remains mired in contraction in November
December 2, 2019
The manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), released by IHS Markit, rose to 46.7 in November from October’s 45.6, which had marked the worst reading since June 2009.
Poland: Inflation ticks up in November
November 29, 2019
Consumer prices inched up 0.1% over the previous month in November, following October’s 0.2% uptick, according to provisional data released by the Poland’s Statistical Institute (GUS).
Poland: Growth eases to near three-year low in Q3 but remains upbeat nonetheless
November 29, 2019
The economy grew 3.9% year-on-year in unadjusted terms in the third quarter of this year, according to a second estimate released by Poland’s Statistical Institute (GUS) on 29 November.
Poland: Retail sales growth inches up in October
November 27, 2019
Nominal retail sales increased 5.4% year-on-year in October, slightly above September’s 5.3% rise.
Poland: Business sentiment drops further into pessimistic terrain in November
November 26, 2019
Manufacturing-sector business confidence fell again in November, according to the business tendency indicator released by the Central Statistical Office (GUS).