New Zealand skyline

New Zealand GDP

New Zealand GDP

Economic Growth in New Zealand

The New Zealand economy recorded an average growth rate of 3.1% in the decade to 2022, below the 4.4% average for the Asia-Pacific region. In 2022, New Zealand's real GDP growth was 2.7%. For more GDP information, visit our dedicated page.

New Zealand GDP Chart

Note: This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) for New Zealand from 2013 to 2022.
Source: Statistics New Zealand.

New Zealand GDP Data

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 3.5 3.1 -1.4 5.6 2.4
GDP (USD bn) 209 211 210 250 242
GDP (NZD bn) 302 320 323 353 381
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) 5.6 5.7 1.2 9.1 7.9

GDP records sharpest contraction since Q4 2022 in Q3

GDP dropped 0.3% on a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis in the third quarter, below the 0.5% expansion tallied in the second quarter. Q3's reading marked the worst result since Q4 2022. On an annual basis, economic activity declined 0.6% in Q3, contrasting the previous quarter's 1.5% increase. Q3's annual reading marked the largest contraction since Q3 2021.

The downturn was broad-based, with private consumption, public spending, fixed investment and exports all contracting. Household spending fell 0.6% in the third quarter, which was below the second quarter's flat reading. Public consumption dropped at the sharpest pace since Q2 2022, contracting 1.8% (Q2: +3.4% s.a. qoq). Meanwhile, fixed investment contracted 3.4% in Q3, marking the worst reading since Q2 2022 (Q2: +0.3% s.a. qoq). On the external front, exports of goods and services contracted 2.6% in Q3, marking the worst reading since Q1 2022 (Q2: +4.6% s.a. qoq). Conversely, imports of goods and services declined at a softer rate of 0.3% in Q3 (Q2: -0.8% s.a. qoq).

Momentum likely remains subdued in Q4, according to our panel. However, a post-election surge in business confidence in October-November and rising consumer sentiment pose upside risks to activity. Looking further ahead, the economy should expand at a faster clip in 2024 compared to this year, underpinned by a further recovery in tourism and falling inflation and interest rates. Feebler export growth will limit the pace of expansion, however. Pro-market policies from the new center-right government pose an upside risk. The economic performance of China is a key factor to monitor.

Commenting on the outlook, Lee Sue Ann, economist at UOB, stated: “A challenging economic backdrop remains. Our GDP growth forecasts are now at 1.0% in 2024, from a projected 0.9% in 2023. Positive factors include a turning around of the housing market, surging net migration, and expansionary fiscal policy; while negative factors include contractionary monetary conditions, softer global demand, and heightened geopolitical tensions.”

Consensus Forecasts and Projections for the next ten years

How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects New Zealand GDP projections for the next ten years from a panel of 23 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable GDP forecast available for New Zealand GDP.

Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our New Zealand GDP projections.

Want to get access to the full dataset of New Zealand GDP forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.

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