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Mexico Trade

Mexico Trade

Merchandise Trade Balance in Mexico

In the decade leading to 2022, Mexico's merchandise trade balance averaged a deficit of USD 5.5 billion. The 2022 reading showed a larger deficit of USD 26.9 billion. For more trade information, visit our dedicated page.

Mexico Trade Chart

Note: This chart displays Trade Balance (USD billion) for Mexico from 2014 to 2023.
Source: INEGI Mexico.

Mexico Trade Data

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) -13.6 5.4 34.2 -10.8 -26.9

Merchandise exports decline marginally in December

Merchandise exports fell 0.1% over the same month last year in December (November: +2.0% year-on-year). A notable fall in oil exports was broadly offset by double-digit vehicle export growth. Over 2023 as a whole, exports rose 2.6% in annual terms, buoyed by stronger sales to the U.S.—particularly of vehicles. Meanwhile, merchandise imports decreased 6.9% over the same month last year in December (November: +0.4% yoy), marking the weakest reading since July 2023. As a result, the merchandise trade balance improved from the previous month, recording a USD 4.2 billion surplus in December (November 2023: USD 0.6 billion surplus; December 2022: USD 1.0 billion surplus). Lastly, the trend pointed up, with the 12-month trailing merchandise trade balance recording a USD 5.5 billion deficit in December, compared to the USD 8.7 billion deficit in November.

Our forecast is for both exports and imports to rise year on year in 2024, with import growth set to outpace export growth.

On the outlook for this year, Itaú Unibanco analysts said: “We expect the trade deficit to widen in 2024 to USD 17 billion (from a deficit of USD 5.5 billion in 2023). Our forecast assumes manufacturing exports remain soft, dragged by a slower external demand, while non-energy consumption and investment imports are likely to be resilient driven by a favorable evolution of the internal demand which is supported by an expansionary fiscal stance.”

Consensus Forecasts and Projections for the next ten years

How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Mexican trade projections for the next ten years from a panel of 17 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable trade forecast available for Mexican trade.

Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Mexican trade projections.

Want to get access to the full dataset of Mexican trade forecasts? Send an email to

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