Temporary factors boost output: GDP growth gathered traction to 5.4% year on year in the fourth quarter of 2024, up...
Economic Growth in Mexico
Mexico's GDP growth from 2013 to 2022 was moderate, constrained by structural challenges and policy uncertainties. The economy benefited from its proximity to the United States but faced headwinds from fluctuating oil prices and an ambivalent stance towards the private sector under the President Obrador. Post-pandemic the economy has benefitted from investment by firms looking to reshore production close to the vast U.S. market.
The Mexican economy recorded an average growth rate of 1.2% in the decade to 2022, below the 1.3% average for Latin America. In 2022, real GDP growth was 3.9%. For more GDP information, visit our dedicated page.
Mexico GDP Chart
Note: This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) for Mexico from 2014 to 2023.
Source: Macrobond.
Mexico GDP Data
| 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) | -0.4 | -8.4 | 6.0 | 3.7 | 3.3 |
| GDP (USD bn) | 1,305 | 1,121 | 1,316 | 1,467 | 1,795 |
| GDP (MXN bn) | 25,122 | 24,087 | 26,690 | 29,516 | 31,856 |
| Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) | 3.9 | -4.1 | 10.8 | 10.6 | 7.9 |
Economy records quickest upturn since Q2 2022 in Q3
GDP reading: According to a preliminary reading, GDP growth improved to 1.0% on a seasonally adjusted quarter on quarter basis in the third quarter, up from 0.2% in the second quarter and marking an over two-year high. Moreover, Q3’s reading overshot market expectations. On an annual basis, economic growth slowed to 1.5% in Q3, from the previous period's 2.1% increase.
Drivers: The services sector grew 0.9% over the previous quarter in seasonally-adjusted terms in Q3, picking up from the second quarter's 0.1% increase. Households running down savings could have underpinned services activity in the period, in addition to solid real wage growth and low unemployment. In addition, the industrial sector gained steam, growing 0.9% in Q3 (Q2: +0.3% s.a. qoq), likely aided by resilient external demand. The primary sector grew 4.6% in Q3, contrasting the 0.2% contraction recorded in the previous quarter.
GDP outlook: Our Consensus is for the economy to lose steam in Q4 following Q3’s above-trend growth.
Panelist insight: BBVA analysts were downbeat on prospects for 2025: “Although GDP growth during 3Q24 represents favorable data for this year's growth, it is unlikely that this same dynamism will extend to 2025, in a context of uncertainty for investment derived from the recent judicial reform, in addition to the fiscal consolidation already announced by the current administration.” In a similar vein, Credicorp Capital’s Daniel Velandia said: “We anticipate a more pronounced adjustment in total investment starting in 3Q24 due to the easing of election-related effects, delayed nearshoring investments, and still tight monetary policy. With no more evident signs of a recovery in investment and subdued public spending, these factors will significantly affect growth in 2025.”
Consensus Forecasts and Projections for the next ten years
How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Mexican GDP projections for the next ten years from a panel of 53 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable GDP forecast available for Mexican GDP.
Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Mexican GDP projections.
Want to get access to the full dataset of Mexican GDP forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.
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