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Mexico GDP

Mexico GDP

Economic Growth in Mexico

Mexico's GDP growth from 2013 to 2022 was moderate, constrained by structural challenges and policy uncertainties. The economy benefited from its proximity to the United States but faced headwinds from fluctuating oil prices and an ambivalent stance towards the private sector under the President Obrador. Post-pandemic the economy has benefitted from investment by firms looking to reshore production close to the vast U.S. market.

The Mexican economy recorded an average growth rate of 1.2% in the decade to 2022, below the 1.3% average for Latin America. In 2022, real GDP growth was 3.9%. For more GDP information, visit our dedicated page.

Mexico GDP Chart

Note: This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) for Mexico from 2014 to 2023.
Source: Macrobond.

Mexico GDP Data

2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) -0.4 -8.4 6.0 3.7 3.2
GDP (USD bn) 1,306 1,120 1,312 1,464 1,790
GDP (MXN bn) 25,143 24,082 26,619 29,453 31,768
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) 4.0 -4.2 10.5 10.6 7.9

GDP growth ticks up in the first quarter

According to a preliminary estimate, GDP growth picked up to 0.2% on a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis in the first quarter, from 0.1% in the fourth quarter of last year. The still-fairly-limp Q1 growth reading was due to a large fall in output in January. On an annual basis, economic growth slowed markedly to 1.6% in Q1, from the previous quarter's 2.5% increase. Q1's reading marked the softest expansion since Q1 2021.

In Q1, contractions in the primary and second sectors were more than offset by an expansion in services. Primary activity could have been dampened by a severe drought, and secondary activity by the strong peso hurting export competitiveness. In contrast, the services sector benefited from strong remittances, employment, wages and tourist arrivals.

Our Consensus is for GDP growth to pick up in sequential terms later this year, spurred by rate cuts from the Central Bank.

On the outlook, Itaú Unibanco analysts said: “Our GDP growth forecast of 2.8% for 2024 has a downward bias given a soft 1Q24. However, we note that the soft 1Q24 GDP was mainly due to the weak monthly GDP print in January, while the February activity figure expanded at a strong pace, and March is likely to expand further.” Credicorp Capital analysts sounded more upbeat: “We still expect that investment in civil works, in the context of a change of administration, will continue to drive economic growth in 1H24. We reiterate that our view is the upward revision of growth expectations for its main trading partner, the US, to close to 2.0%-2.7% in 2024 points to an improvement in external demand and resilience in foreign currency inflows, thus, reversing the faltering goods demand from the US.”

Consensus Forecasts and Projections for the next ten years

How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Mexican GDP projections for the next ten years from a panel of 51 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable GDP forecast available for Mexican GDP.

Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Mexican GDP projections.

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