Mexico External Debt (USD bn)

Merchandise exports gain steam in January

Merchandise exports shot up 25.6% annually in January, on the heels of December’s 3.4% rise. The figure marked the most robust outturn since February 2022 and was driven by over-60% growth in vehicle exports, likely amid an easing chip shortage. Meanwhile, merchandise imports jumped 16.3% in annual terms in January (December: +2.6% yoy) on double-digit increases in oil and non-oil imports.

As a result, the merchandise trade balance deteriorated from the previous month, recording a USD 4.1 billion deficit in January (December 2023: USD 1.0 billion surplus; January 2022: USD 6.3 billion deficit). Lastly, the trend improved, with the 12-month trailing merchandise trade balance recording a USD 24.3 billion deficit in January, compared to the USD 26.4 billion deficit in December.

Panelists surveyed for this month’s LatinFocus report project merchandise exports to rise 3.4% in 2023 and merchandise imports to grow 2.4%, pushing the trade deficit to USD 20.8 billion. For 2024, our panel sees merchandise exports increasing 5.3% and merchandise imports rising 5.2%, with a trade deficit of USD 21.3 billion.